Volume 29 Issue 1
Feb.  2023
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CHEN C L，FANG Z W，2023. Research on an effective rainfall model for geological disaster early warning in Fujian Province, China[J]. Journal of Geomechanics，29（1）：99−110 doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022090
Citation: CHEN C L，FANG Z W，2023. Research on an effective rainfall model for geological disaster early warning in Fujian Province, China[J]. Journal of Geomechanics，29（1）：99−110 doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022090
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Research on an effective rainfall model for geological disaster early warning in Fujian Province, China

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022090

  • China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring (Consultative Centre of Geo-Hazard Mitigation, MNR), Beijing 100081, China

Funds:  This research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42207213), the Geological Environment Monitoring Program of CGS (Grant No.121210140001500), and the Geological Survey Program of the China Geological Survey (Grant No.0001212018CC60020).
More Information
  • Received: 2022-07-15
  • Revised: 2022-11-14
  • Accepted: 2023-01-12
    • Available Online: 2022-12-02
    Abstract
  • Rainfall is one of the most important external factors inducing geological disasters, especially prominent in China’s mountainous regions. Many group-occurring geological disasters induced by heavy rainfall occurred in southeast China’s middle and low mountainous regions, causing many casualties and property losses. Taking Fujian Province as an example, we carefully examined the actual rainfall data of historical geological disaster cases and conducted correlation studies on typical rainfall processes inducing group-occurring geological disasters based on quantitative rainfall estimation with county-level administrative districts as the statistical unit. We also carried out a partial correlation analysis based on quantitative indicators of the geological environment for verification. The result shows that the occurrence of geological disasters in Fujian correlates with adequate rainfall within three days, and it is reduced by a reduction coefficient of 0.79 daily. Based on that finding, we established an effective rainfall model for Fujian Province and verified it through field monitoring and early warning applications. Applying this rainfall model to geological disaster early warning in Fujian can reduce the warning area, lower the warning level, shorten the warning duration, and improve the accuracy of geological disaster early warning by maintaining the hit ratio. The results of the study can help to characterize the rainfall accurately and can provide a scientific basis for the reasonable assessment of rainfall factors in regional geological disaster early warning.

     

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