TREND PREDICTION RESEARCH OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD IN THE YANGTZE ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM THEORY

CHEN Chun-li; HE Kai; WEN Ming-sheng; LIANG Hong-kun

Volume 22 Issue 3

Sep. 2016

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Article Navigation > Journal of Geomechanics > 2016 > 22(3): 706-713

CHEN Chun-li, HE Kai, WEN Ming-sheng, et al., 2016. TREND PREDICTION RESEARCH OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD IN THE YANGTZE ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM THEORY. Journal of Geomechanics, 22 (3): 706-713.

Citation:

CHEN Chun-li, HE Kai, WEN Ming-sheng, et al., 2016. TREND PREDICTION RESEARCH OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD IN THE YANGTZE ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM THEORY. Journal of Geomechanics, 22 (3): 706-713.

Citation:

CHEN Chun-li, HE Kai, WEN Ming-sheng, et al., 2016. TREND PREDICTION RESEARCH OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD IN THE YANGTZE ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM THEORY. Journal of Geomechanics, 22 (3): 706-713.

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TREND PREDICTION RESEARCH OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD IN THE YANGTZE ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM THEORY

1.
China Institute for Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Science, Beijing 100081, China

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Received: 2016-05-05
Published: 2016-09-01

Abstract

Abstract

The grey system theory is introduced to the trend prediction research of geological hazard. Modeling and prediction are taken with the case study of the trend of geological hazards in the Yangtze Economic Zone, and the precision is analyzed finally. The result shows that model GM(1, 1) can be used for trend prediction research of geological hazard and the gray system theory are useful. Based on the prediction we know that the annual number of geological hazards presents fluctuant descend tendency and serious disaster year maybe appear in the next 2 years. The results obtained may provide supportable information to the prevention and reduction department in the Yangtze Economic Zone.
- the Yangtze Economic Zone,
- gray system theory,
- geological hazard,
- trend prediction

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References(11)

References

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