成矿预测的发展现状及趋势

刘林; 芮会超

成矿预测的发展现状及趋势

刘林^{1, 2,},
芮会超³

1.
陕西省矿产资源勘查与综合利用重点实验室, 西安 710054
2.
陕西省地质矿产勘查开发总公司, 西安 710054
3.
长安大学地球科学与资源学院, 西安 710064

详细信息

作者简介:
刘林(1967-), 男, 硕士, 地质高级工程师、计算机技术讲师, 现主要从事地质矿产勘查、数据挖掘工作。E-mail:liulin1885@163.com

中图分类号: P612
计量
- 文章访问数: 207
- HTML全文浏览量: 60
- PDF下载量: 30
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-11-30
- 刊出日期: 2016-06-28

PRESENT SITUATION AND DEVELOPMENT TENDENCY OF METALLOGENIC PREDICTION

LIU Lin^{1, 2
,},
RUI Hui-chao³

1.
Shaanxi Key Laboratory of exploration and comprehensive utilization of mineral resources, Xi'an 710054, China
2.
Shaanxi Geological and mineral Survey and development corporation, Xi'an 710065, China
3.
College of Earth Science and Resources, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, China

摘要

摘要: 在对成矿预测学起源、研究现状及存在问题进行概括、分析与总结的基础上，阐述了相关的成矿预测理论、常用的成矿预测方法和矿体定位预测研究，并从四方面论述了成矿预测学的发展趋势，以期为成矿预测提供一些有益的参考。
- 成矿预测 /
- 地质异常 /
- 预测方法 /
- 定位预测 /
- 综合信息
Abstract: Based on the summarization and generalization of the metallogenic prediction development process, we illuminated the related theory and the commonly used methods of metallogenic prediction as well as the orebody location prediction research. We discussed the development trends of metallogenic prediction from four different aspects, with aim to provide some useful advises and references for prediction of mineralization.
- metallogenic prediction /
- geological anomalies /
- prediction method /
- locating predication /
- integrated information

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表 1 国内外有关学者的成矿预测方法分类一览表^[12]

Table 1. Classification of methods of metallogenic prediction from different researchers

序号	学者姓名	分类方法
1	秋也夫(前苏联)	① 启发式预测(专家预测)；② 数学模型预测
2	沙利文(美国)克雷康贝(美国)	① 定性预测法；② 时间序列预测法；③ 因果模型预测法
3	道勃罗夫(前苏联)	① 专家评估法；② 趋势外推法；③ 模型法。进一步分为8组19种
4	琼斯(美国)特维斯(美国)	① 定性预测；② 定量预测；③ 时间预测；④ 概率预测
5	哈里斯(美国)	① 多元统计预测法；② 主观评价法
6	龙得克维斯特	① 地质—几何法；② 历史演化法；③ 共生分析法；④ 构造—建造—岩相法
7	赵鹏大(1983)	① 资源潜力评价方法；② 成矿远景区评价方法；③ 地质标志评价方法
8	朱裕生(1984)	① 地质标志评价方法；② 主观评价方法；③ 简单地质标志评价方法；④ 成矿地质标志评价方法；⑤ 定性地质标志评价方法；⑥ 成因地质模型评价法
9	王世称(1986)	按预测目的分5类，每类又按离散型、连续型、混合型3分，共分15种
10	卢作祥等(1988)	① 归纳法(编图法)；② 类比法；③ 统计分析法；④ 综合法
11	刘石年(1993)	① 相似类比；② 求异法；③ 资源总量预测和潜力评价方法；④ 预测矿床可能规模方法
12	曹新志(1993)	① 趋势外推法；② 归纳法；③ 类比法；④ 综合法
13	范永香(2002)	① 地质分析类比法；② 数理统计法；③ 物化探综合信息法；④ 基于GIS的成矿预测法

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表 2 成矿预测方法分类简表^[13]

Table 2. Simplified classification of methods of metallogenic predictio

内容	成矿预测方法分类		主要预测目标和方法
内容	类	亚类	主要预测目标和方法
找矿靶区预测		环境类比法	查明成矿背景和环境，建立环境类比模型
		条件分析法	查明控矿条件的作用及最优组合和部位，建立条件控矿模型
	相似类比	综合信息法	查明成矿信息及最优组合和部位，建立综合信息模型
	求异法	地质几何法	对控地质界面进行模拟及矿体空间定位，建立地质几何模型
		时问系列法	查明主要成矿期次及演化规律，预测矿产时空分布
		其生分析法	查明矿床组合及成矿系列，预测共生矿种和矿床
		矿床模型法	建立矿床成因模型或综合类比模型，对工作地区进行预测
		定性组合求异法	对地质异常进行体线面点组合求异厦预坝
		定量组和求异法	对拧矿冈素和矿化信息进行取值、变换、定量组合求异
资源定量预测	资源总量预测和潜力评价方法		区域价值法，体积估算法、丰度估算法、矿床模型法、德尔菲法、蒙特卡洛法、综合法
资源定量预测	预测矿床可能规模方法		回归分析法、判别分析法、聚类分析法、逻辑信息法、系统模拟法、克里金法

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