LANDSLIDE HAZARD RAPID ASSESSMENT IN THE Ms 8.1 NEPAL EARTHQUAKE-IMPACTED AREA, BASED ON NEWMARK MODEL
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摘要: 在研究分析地震灾区地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、气象水文和典型地区滑坡的基础上，采用Newmark斜坡累积位移模型对2015年4月25日尼泊尔Ms 8.1级地震诱发的滑坡危险性的空间分布状况进行了快速评估，通过典型地区的滑坡遥感解译结果验证表明评估结果具有较好的可信度，初步反映了尼泊尔地震诱发滑坡危险性分布的基本特征。然后考虑降雨作用对震后滑坡危险性的影响，对地震叠加降雨诱发滑坡危险性分布进行了快速预测。研究结果对地震应急救灾中的地质灾害防灾减灾具有重要的参考意义。
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关键词:
- Ms 8.1级尼泊尔地震 /
- Newmark模型 /
- 滑坡危险性 /
- 快速评估 /
- 西藏
Abstract: April 25, 2015, an Ms8.1 earthquake occurred in Nepal with epicenter of 28.2°N, 84.7° E and focal depth of 20 km. The earthquake and induced landslides caused serious casualties and economic losses in Nepal and southwest Tibet of China. After the earthquake, the earthquake-induced landslide hazard distribution offered information to timely relief activities. Based on the detailed analysis of geomorphology, lithology, tectonics, hydrology and typical landslides, the sophisticated Newmark model and Geographic Information System were adopted to complete the rapid assessment of landslide hazard distribution in the Nepal earthquake-impacted area. The assessment results had good confidence by the verification in terms of landslide cases coming from remote sensing interpretation in partial regions and initially reflected the basic characteristics of Nepal earthquake-induced landslide hazard distribution. Then, considering the post-earthquake rainfall effect that can significantly initiate landslides, the landslide hazard rapid assessment under the combined effect of seismic motion and heavy rainfall was completed. The landslide hazard rapid assessment results can provide important references to geo-hazard prevention and mitigation during post-earthquake emergent relief activities.-
Key words:
- Ms 8.1 Nepal earthquake /
- Newmark model /
- landslide hazard /
- rapid assessment /
- Tibet
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图 1 尼泊尔及中国藏南地区地理地貌图
F1-喜马拉雅中央主断裂; F2-喜马拉雅边界主断裂; F3-藏南滑脱拆离系断裂
Figure 1. Geographical landform in Nepal and southwest Tibet of China
图 3 尼泊尔地震诱发典型崩塌、滑坡和堰塞湖实例(据尼泊尔地震应急专家组)
a-吉隆滑坡形成堰塞湖; b-吉隆滑坡; c-地震引起樟木口岸边坡发生滚石; d-地震引起樟木滑坡发生局部变形
Figure 3. Typical cases of Nepal earthquake-induced geo-hazards
图 4 Newmark模型的累积位移计算过程示意图[4]
Figure 4. Schematic diagram of calculation process of cumulative displacement of Newmark model
图 5 尼泊尔地震滑坡危险性快速评估过程。
(a)工程地质岩组, (b)斜坡坡度, (c)静态安全系数, (d)临界加速度, (e)地震峰值地面加速度, (f)地震诱发斜坡位移。
Figure 5. Rapid assessment procedure of Nepal earthquake-induced landslide hazard
图 6 尼泊尔地震诱发滑坡危险性分布图
Figure 6. Distribution map of Nepal earthquake-induced landslide hazard
图 7 尼泊尔地震诱发滑坡危险性快速评价结果与地质灾害分布统计关系图
Figure 7. Statistical relationship between earthquake-induced landslide hazard distribution and field landslide case distribution resulted from post-earthquake rapid remote sensing interpretation
图 8 尼泊尔及中国藏南地区6—9月平均降雨空间分布图(1981—2007年)(据中国国家气象局)
Figure 8. Average rainfall distribution from June to September (1981—2007) in Nepal and southwest Tibet of China
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