The earthquake-controlling process of continental collision-extrusion active tectonic system around Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: a case study of strong earthquakes since 1990
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摘要: 青藏高原是地中海-喜马拉雅地震带上强震活动最频繁的区域之一,深入认识该区的活动构造体系控震效应对于区域强震危险性分析具有重要科学意义。从陆陆碰撞-挤出活动构造体系角度,对青藏高原自1990年以来的Mw≥6.0强震活动及控震构造机制进行分析发现,青藏高原陆陆碰撞-挤出构造体系对区域强震活动起到显著控制作用,区域强震事件,尤其是M≥6.5地震主要出现在构造体系的主要边界断裂带上,并显示出相对有规律的时空迁移过程,而且青藏高原东部的多层次挤出-旋转活动构造体系构成了1990年以来强震过程的主要控震构造,其次是喜马拉雅主前缘逆冲断裂带。因此,青藏高原挤出构造体系应是未来强震活动趋势分析最值得关注的区域,尤其是当前最为活跃的巴颜喀拉次级挤出构造单元。对比分析土耳其安纳托利亚板块及周边的强震活动发现,该区具有类似的陆陆碰撞-挤出构造体系及控震效应,表明该构造体系是陆内造山中的一种典型控震构造。进一步综合分析认为,活动构造体系控震效应的主要表现:一是构造体系中主要断块的边界断裂带通常是强震活动的主要场所;二是构造体系中不同构造带的强震活动常具有联动效应或相互触发关系,其中的复杂或特殊构造部位则是易出现双震或震群活动的场所;三是当构造体系中某个构造单元或构造带处于活跃阶段时,便会出现强震丛集现象。另外,充分认识构造体系中主要活断层间的协调变形关系,活断层带上的强震活动的分段破裂行为,以及活断层上强震原地复发通常存在“周期长,准周期性和丛集性”的特点等,有助于在根据活动构造体系分析区域未来强震活动趋势时更为准确地判定活断层带的未来强震危险性。Abstract: The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of the regions with the highest frequency of strong earthquake activity in the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic belt. Understanding the earthquake-controlling effect of the active tectonic system in this region is crucial for analyzing regional strong earthquake hazard. We conducted an analysis on earthquake activity with Mw≥6.0 since 1990 and their tectonic mechanism around the Tibetan Plateau, focusing on the continental collision-extrusion tectonic system. The results show that the continental collision-extrusion tectonic system of the Tibetan Plateau plays a significant role in governing regional strong earthquake activity. Specifically, Mw≥6.5 earthquakes primarily occur along the main boundary fault zone of this tectonic system, and exhibiting a relatively regular spatio-temporal migration process. Moreover, the multi-layered extrusion-rotation active tectonic system in the eastern Tibetan Plateau constitutes the primary controlling-earthquake structure of the strong earthquake process since 1990, followed by the main Himalayan front thrust fault zone. Therefore, the extrusion tectonic system of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau should be the most noteworthy area for the analysis of the trend of strong earthquake activity in the future, especially the most active Bayan Har extrusion structural unit of the active tectonic system at present. A comparative analysis of strong earthquake activities in and around the Anatolian plate around Turkey shows that there are similar continental collision-extrusion tectonic systems and control-earthquake effects in this area, which indicates that this tectonic system is a typical control-earthquake structure in intracontinental orogenic belt. Further comprehensive analysis suggests that active tectonic system can exert significant control over regional strong earthquake activity. First, most of the strong earthquake events occur in the main boundary fault zone of fault-block in tectonic system. Second, the strong earthquake events along different structural zones in tectonic system often have linkage effect or mutual triggering relationship, and the complex or special structural sites are often the places where double earthquakes or earthquake swarm activities are easy to occur. Thirdly, when a unit or structural belt of tectonic system is during strong deformation stage, strong earthquake clusters will occur. In addition, fully recognizing the coordinated deformation relationship between the main active faults in the tectonic system, the segmented rupture behavior of strong earthquake activity in the active fault zone, and the characteristics of "long period, quasi-periodicity and cluster" of strong earthquake recurrence in situ on the active fault are helpful to analyze the future trend of regional strong earthquake activity according to the active tectonic system. The future risk of strong earthquakes in active fault zones can be determined more accurately.
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