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四川泸定MS6.8级地震区湾东河流域泥石流活动性预测

张宪政 铁永波 李光辉 杨昶 卢佳燕 鲁拓

张宪政, 铁永波, 李光辉, 等, 2022. 四川泸定MS6.8级地震区湾东河流域泥石流活动性预测. 地质力学学报, 28 (6): 1035-1045. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.20222827
引用本文: 张宪政, 铁永波, 李光辉, 等, 2022. 四川泸定MS6.8级地震区湾东河流域泥石流活动性预测. 地质力学学报, 28 (6): 1035-1045. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.20222827
ZHANG Xianzheng, TIE Yongbo, LI Guanghui, et al., 2022. Characteristics and risk assessment of debris flows in the Wandong catchment after the MS 6.8 Luding earthquake. Journal of Geomechanics, 28 (6): 1035-1045. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.20222827
Citation: ZHANG Xianzheng, TIE Yongbo, LI Guanghui, et al., 2022. Characteristics and risk assessment of debris flows in the Wandong catchment after the MS 6.8 Luding earthquake. Journal of Geomechanics, 28 (6): 1035-1045. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.20222827

四川泸定MS6.8级地震区湾东河流域泥石流活动性预测

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.20222827
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金 U20A20110-01

中国地质调查局地质调查项目 DD20221746

详细信息
    作者简介:

    张宪政(1990—), 男, 博士, 工程师, 主要从事地质灾害评价与防治研究工作。E-mail: 1067303751@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    铁永波(1979—), 男, 博士, 教授级高级工程师, 主要从事地质灾害形成机理与防治研究工作。E-mail: tyongbo@mail.cgs.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.23

Characteristics and risk assessment of debris flows in the Wandong catchment after the MS 6.8 Luding earthquake

Funds: 

the National Natural Science Foundation of China U20A20110-01

the Geological Survery Project of the China Geological Survey DD20221746

  • 摘要:

    2022年9月5日四川泸定县发生MS 6.8级地震, 地震诱发大量同震崩滑体, 并导致湾东河断流。基于现场调查、影像解译和区域地质资料分析, 采用空间统计和水文计算的方法, 对湾东河流域同震崩滑体分布特征和潜在泥石流危险性进行了研究。结果表明: 湾东河流域内同震崩滑体主要分布在地震烈度Ⅸ度区, 规模以中小型为主, 主要沿沟道两侧展布, 尤其是单薄山脊两侧临空面发育密度较大, 距断层距离和坡度对其分布具有明显的控灾效应; 未来湾东河流域暴发溃决型泥石流的冲出量可能为同等触发条件下震前泥石流的约两倍。依此提出了加强流域内溃决型泥石流风险防范, 尽快通过综合监测预警获取泥石流发生的临界雨量值, 在泥石流防治工程设计中应充分考虑泥石流规模放大系数等防灾减灾建议, 为泸定地震后泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供科学参考。

     

  • 图  1  研究区地质岩性和水系分布图

    Figure  1.  Lithology and drainage distribution map of the study area

    图  2  湾东河多处滑坡堵塞河道

    Figure  2.  Landslide dams blocked the channel of the Wandong catchment

    图  3  泸定地震震前和震后崩滑体分布图

    a—同震崩滑体分布图;b—震前崩滑体分布图

    Figure  3.  Landslide distribution map of pre and post the Luding earthquake

    (a) Co-seismic landslide distribution map; (b) Pre-seismic landslide distribution map

    图  4  同震崩滑体密度分布图

    Figure  4.  Density distribution map of the co-seismic landslides

    图  5  同震崩滑体面积及密度与距断层距离的关系统计图

    Figure  5.  Graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus distance from fault

    图  6  同震崩滑体面积及密度与高程的关系统计图

    Figure  6.  Graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus elevation

    图  7  同震崩滑体面积与坡度的关系统计图

    Figure  7.  Graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus slope steepness

    图  8  同震崩滑体面积及密度与坡向的关系雷达图

    Figure  8.  Radar graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus aspect

    图  9  堆积在沟道中的同震崩滑体碎屑物

    Figure  9.  The debris deposition of co-seismic landslides along the channel

    图  10  泸定地震震前和震后湾东河主沟下游滑坡发育及堰塞湖分布情况

    a—地震后河道堵塞形成堰塞湖分布图(影像来源于高分6号);b—地震前河道情况(影像来源于谷歌地图)

    Figure  10.  The distribution of co-seismic landslides and dammed lakes in the main downstream channel of the Wandong catchment pre and post the Luding earthquake

    (a) The distribution of the dammed lakes formed by co-seismic landslides (The image is from GF6); (b) The state of the channel before the earthquake (The image is from Google Earth)

    表  1  数据清单

    Table  1.   Data list

    类型 分辨率 来源
    岩性数据 1∶5万 成都地质调查中心
    高程数据 12.5 m ALOS全球数字地表模型
    (https://www.eorc.jaxa.jp)
    多光谱影像数据 10 m 哨兵2;日期:2022-09-11、2021-04-29
    (https://scihub.copernicus.eu)
    全彩影像 2 m 高分2号、高分6号;日期:2022-09-10
    (由四川省地质调查院提供)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  泥石流冲出量计算参数表

    Table  2.   Parameters of debris flow runout

    流域名称 容重/(t/m3) 堵塞系数
    湾东河主沟 1.80 4.5
    红岩沟 2.15 3.5
    银厂沟 2.15 3.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  震后湾东沟流域不同频率下泥石流特征值

    Table  3.   Characteristic values of debris flow at different frequencies in the Wandong catchment

    参数 流域名称 降雨频率P/%
    5 2 1 0.5
    洪水洪峰流量/(m3/s) 湾东河 281 338 376 461
    红岩沟 92 106 117 139
    银厂沟 68 77 85 99
    泥石流洪峰流量/(m3/s) 湾东河 1330 1600 1778 2178
    红岩沟 606 702 770 915
    银厂沟 451 512 558 652
    一次冲出固体物质总量/(×105 m3) 湾东河 6.8* 6.7* 7.9* 8.9*
    红岩沟 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.3
    银厂沟 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6
    *假定主沟道内8个堰塞湖全部溃决,可提供3.6×105 m3的固体物质
    下载: 导出CSV
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