RISK ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES IN THE CONSTRUCTION AREA OF THE WEST LINE OF THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECT
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摘要: 作者已在《青藏高原地质过程与环境灾害效应》文集中, 对南水北调西线调水区地震与活动断裂的关系及其特征进行了论述, 本文通过南水北调西线工程区地震活动特点, 利用区域地震资料采用统计的方法研究地震发生的时空分布特点及预测未来发生地震的可能性。Abstract: The paper discusses the distinguishing features of earthquake activities in the construction area of the west line of the project of water diversion from the upper Yangtze River in the south to the upper Yellow River in the north.According to these features, by using the regional earthquake data and statistical method, the characteristics of temporal-spatial distribution of earthquakes occurring in the area are discussed, and in addition, the possibility of occurrence of earthquakes in the area in the future is predicted.
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图 1 工程区发震断裂及地震震中分布图
Figure 1. Distribution of epicenters and earthquake-triggering faults in the construction area
图 4 工程区地震释放能量等值线图
Figure 4. Isopleths of earthquake release energy in the construction area
图 5 南水北调西线地区地震MS>4.0级频度曲线
Figure 5. Frequency curve of earthquakes of MS>4.0 in the construction area
图 6 南水北调西线地区地震MS>4.0级累积频次度曲线
Figure 6. Cumulative frequency curve of earthquakes of MS>4.0 in the construction area of the west line of the south-to-north water diversion project
图 7 鲜水河断裂地震M-T趋势图(据四川地震局)
Figure 7. M-T trend of the earthquake related to the Xianshuihe fault
图 9 区域地震带对应变释放曲线图(据四川地震局)
a.巴颜喀拉山地震带; b.鲜水河地震带
Figure 9. Strain release curve corresponding to regional earthquake belts
表 1 最大震级估计
Table 1. Estimation of the greatest magnitudes
表 2 应变能量释放速率估计
Table 2. Estimation of strain energy release rates
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