ESTIMATION OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKE CYCLE AND FUTURE TENDENCY IN HEXI CORRIDOR AND ITS ADJACENT AREA, NW CHINACHEN
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摘要: 河西走廊是我国中原通往西北地区的重要交通运输要道。受印度板块与欧亚板块于中生代末—新生代早期的碰撞及持续至今的向北推挤作用的远程效应的影响, 河西走廊及邻区是现今地壳活动地区, 其中地震活动为其主要表现形式。已有地震资料分析显示, 公元1555年以来划分为2个平静期和2个活跃期, 现在处于1920年以来的第2个活跃期内; 而最近100年的第2个活跃期内又可以划分为5个相对平静阶段和5个相对活跃阶段, 目前处于2002年以来的第5个活跃阶段内。从大震重复周期分析, 区内各断裂带发生7.0~7.5级大地震的时间间隔为2000~3000年左右。结合各断裂带最近一次地震的时间, 推测未来100年发生7级以上大震可能性很大的区段是三个墩—松山地区、玉门地区、磁窑口—苦水沟地区和嘉峪关地区; 未来100年发生7级以上大震可能性较大的区段是石包城—昌马大坝区段和高台地区。与地震活动相关的研究工作应该在确认活动断裂的基础上加强大震重复周期的研究与分析。Abstract: The Hexi corridor, with its particular geographical position, is an important line connecting middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and NW China. Affected by the late Mesozoic-early Cenozoic collision between Indian Plate and Eurasian Plate and the continuous northward compression the Hexi corridor and its adjacent area occur as a strong Crustal movement zone, as marked by earthquakes. Since 1555AD, two active periods and two quiet periods have been recognized and now is in the second active period since 1920. The second active period in the past 100 years can be divide to five active stages and five quiet stagese, each lasting for 9~16 years, and now is in the last active stage since 2002. Study of major earthquake cycle indicates that the major earthquakes (MS=7.0~7.5) happen at the interval of 2000~3000 years in the study area. According to the state of every active fault in the recent earthquake, it can be predicted that in the coming 100 years the MS>7.0 earthquakes most likely appear in San'gedun-Songshan area of Changma active fault zone, Yuemen area in west part of the Northern Qilianshan fault zone, the Ciyaokou-Kushuigou area in the middle part of Northern Qilianshan fault zone and Jiayuguan area of the Jiayuguan active fault, and likely in Shibaocheng-Changmadaba area in eastern part of Altyu tagh active fault and Gaotai area of Gaotaichezhan active fault. The authors suggest that more attention should be paid to active fault and major earthquake cycle in the study related to earthquake movement.
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图 2 祁连山地震亚区1900年以来地震时序图
(据参考文献[4], 补充1994~2004年资料)
(a)河西走廊地震带; (b)祁连山地震带; (c)柴达木地震带; (d)祁连山地震亚区Figure 2. Map showing the earthquake chronogenesis in Qilianshan earthqueke sub-area since 1900
图 3 断层水系位错及位移与地震震级的关系
(据参考文献[4]修改编制)
(a):阿尔金断裂大泉口水系位错形式; (b):河西走廊-祁连山北缘地区震级-位错量关系图Figure 3. Map showing the river system dislocation and fault displacement related to the earthquake magnitude
图 4 河西走廊及邻区全新世时期(12000年以来)大震发生时间统计图
(据参考文献[4], 补充1994~2004年资料修改编制)
Figure 4. Cartogram showing the major earthquake time in Holocene(since 12000 years)in Hexi corridor and its adjacent area
表 1 祁连山地震亚区1900年以来地震活动阶段划分表
Table 1. Subdivision of of earthquakes active stages in Qilianshan earthquake area since 1900
表 2 河西走廊及邻区主要活动断裂带由滑动速率求得的大震重复间隔时间
Table 2. Time interval of major earthquakes estimated from slip speed of main active fault zonein Hexi corridor and its adjacent area
表 3 由历史地震资料估算的河西走廊及邻区平均地震位移及大震重复间隔(据参考文献[4])
Table 3. Displacement and time interval estimated from historic earthquake informationin Hexi corridor and its adjacent area
表 4 阿尔金断裂带东段(青石峡—骆驼泉)断层崖形态年龄参数表(据参考文献[4])
Table 4. Age parameters of fault scarp in the eastern part of Alyu Tagh fault
表 5 河西走廊及邻区主要活动断裂带大震重复时间间隔(据参考文献[4], 补充本文资料)
Table 5. Time interval of major earthquakes in main active fault zone in Hexi corridor and its adjacent area
表 6 河西走廊及邻区大震重复间隔与未来100年全区大震可能性预测(据参考文献[4], 补充本文资料)
Table 6. Time interval and forecast of major earthquake in coming100 years in Hexi corridor and its adjacent area
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