歹字型构造体系在地震预测中的应用

徐道一; 孙文鹏

歹字型构造体系在地震预测中的应用

徐道一¹,
孙文鹏²

1.
中国地震局地质研究所，北京 100029
2.
核工业北京地质研究院，北京 100029

详细信息

作者简介:
徐道一(1934 -)，男，中国地震局地质研究所研究员，专业:地质学、地震预测、天地生人综合研究

中图分类号: P315.75
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-12-09
- 刊出日期: 2011-03-01

APPLICATION OF THE ETA-TYPE TECTONIC SERIES SUGGESTED BY LI SI-GUANG TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

XU Dao-yi¹,
SUN Wen-peng²

1.
Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China
2.
CNNC Beijing Research Institute of Uranium Geology, Beijing 100029, China

摘要

摘要: 青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系和北美洲西海岸歹字型构造体系是李四光在70多年前提出的两个巨型歹字型构造体系。近年来，歹字型构造体系被应用于地震预测。应用青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系预测2008年汶川8.3级巨震，应用北美洲西海岸歹字型构造体系预测2010年4月5日墨西哥7.5级大地震，均获成功。进一步研究表明，位于同一歹字型构造体系的2个或3个特大巨震的时间间隔为53 ~ 54 a，相当于三个沙罗周期的长度，歹字型构造体系的近代活动基本上是与天文因素有关的，这一联系可被应用于地震预测。
- 歹字型构造体系 /
- 地震预测 /
- 中国大陆 /
- 北美西部 /
- 沙罗周期
Abstract: The eta-type tectonic system was suggested by academician Li Si-guan more than 70 years ago, and two great eta-type tectonic systems have been described by him: one is located in Qinhai-Xizang (Tibet) -Yunan-Burma-Indonesia (QXYBI), and the another is Western part of North America (WNA). Recently they have been applied to the earthquake prediction successfully. In this paper a brief introduction is concerned to the prediction of M_S 8.3 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12^th, 2008 by Huang Xiang-ning based on the QXYBI eta-type tectonic system, and also to the prediction of M_S7.5 Mexico earthquake occurred on April 5^th, 2010 by author according to the WNA eta-type tectonic system. The time intervals (about 53 ~ 54 years) among super-great earthquakes occurred in the same eta-type tectonic system demonstrate clear orderliness related to 3 times of astronomical Saros Period. Thus, it is clear that the modern seismic activity of eta-type tectonic systems is stimulated by the astronomical factors, and this character is favorable for the prediction of great earthquake in future.
- eta-type tectonic system /
- earthquake prediction /
- China mainland /
- western part of the North America /
- Saros period

HTML全文

图 1 全球主要歹字型构造体系(与它们复合的其他构造体系成分均未列入图中)^[6]

Figure 1. The main eta-type tectonic systems all over the world^[6]

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2007年中国地震、水、旱灾害预测图^①

Figure 2. Map showing locations of possible earthquakes, floods and droughts in China in 2007

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 北美西岸歹字型构造体系示意图^[10]

1—构造线走向; 2—砥柱

Figure 3. Sketch map of the eta-type tectonic system located in west coast of North America ^[10]

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2010年上半年青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系头部与尾部发生地震的关联

Table 1. Relationships between earthquakes occurred in the head and tail parts of QXYBI eta-type tectonic system

表 2 6个特大巨震的基本参数

Table 2. Several parameters of six super-great earthquakes

表 3 5个特大巨震的时间间隔

Table 3. Time intervals among 5 super-great earthquakes

表 4 6个特大巨震的空间参数的比较

Table 4. Comparison of several spatial parameters among 6 super-great earthquakes

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