THE TIME SPACE DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND MIGRATION LAW OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE INDIAM-EURASIAN PLATE COLLISION DEFORMATION AREA
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摘要: 印度板块与欧亚板块在新生代期间的持续碰撞和挤压过程导致亚洲大陆发生了强烈的弥散式板内变形，并形成了一个以贝加尔湖为顶点，以喜马拉雅带为底边的近似三角形的变形区与强震活动区，即新-藏三角区。基于固体刚塑性变形平面结构，结合滑移线场网络模型，对该区历史强震活动的大范围离散式空间分布特点进行了分析解释。结合1505-1976年以来历史强震空间迁移的实例，归纳了该区历史强震活动与地震应变释放从印度板块边界→新-藏地块→两侧大陆的顺序性及定向性迁移特征，并根据对地震空间迁移规律的认识，进一步探讨了区域未来强震危险性问题。结果显示，从2000-2018年间，印度板块边界和新-藏三角区已多次发生M7.9~9.1大地震，但其东、西两侧的区域大陆地区却异常平静，没发生过7级以上大地震。依照区域强震活动的顺序性迁移特点，推测在未来几到几十年，亚洲大陆东部与中部以及喜马拉雅带东段等区域的大地震危险性较大。Abstract: The continuous collision and compression between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate during the Cenozoic period led to a strong intraplate deformation of the Asian continent, which resulted in the formation of a triangle deformation area and strong earthquake activity area, namely the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area, with Lake Baikal as the apex and the Himalayan belt as the bottom. Based on the plane structure of solid rigid-plastic deformation and the network model of slip line field, the characteristics of large-scale discrete spatial distribution of historical strong earthquakes in this region are explained. Combined with the examples of the spatial migration of historical strong earthquakes from 1505 to 1976, the sequential and directional migration characteristics of the historical strong earthquakes and the seismic strain release from the boundary of the Indian plate-the Xinjiang-Tibet block-the two sides of the continents are summarized, and potential risks of regional strong earthquakes on the basis of the understanding of the law of seismic spatial migration are discussed. The results show that from 2000 to 2018, the boundary of the Indian plate and the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area have been hit by M7.9~9.1 earthquakes for many times; however, the east and west sides of the continent are the contrary with few earthquakes larger than M7.0. According to the sequential migration characteristics of strong seismic activities in the above seismic regions, it is believed that in the next few to decades, the east and central parts of the Asian continent and the eastern part of the Himalayan belt are at greater risk of major earthquakes.
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图 1 亚洲大陆东部地震分布与地质构造图
Figure 1. Seismic distribution and tectonic map of eastern Asia continent
图 6 地震时间(年)序列实例图示
A—印度板块边界, 绿色(M≥8);B—新藏三角区, 红色(M≥7.8);C—侧方地块(中国大陆东部和中亚)，C黑色(M≥7.5)
Figure 6. The seismic time-sequences patterns
图 7 2000—2017年序列图(显示B和C区异常平静)
A—印度板块边界, 绿色(M≥8);B—新藏三角区, 红色(M≥7.8);C—侧方地块(中国大陆东部和中亚)，C黑色(M≥7.5)
Figure 7. The sequence pattern from 2000 to 2017 (Showing that B and C areas are remarkable quiet)
图 8 三角区及附近M≥8级地震分布图(1700—2017年)
Figure 8. The seismic distribution of the triangle area and vicinity M≥8.0 (1700—2017)
图 11 新—藏三角区强震活动的纵向迁移时空图像
红色和黑色圆点代表区域上的M≥7.0历史地震事件及发生时间；圆点间直线指示地震迁移路径；箭头指示其时间顺序
Figure 11. Time Space images of the longitudinal migration of strong earthquakes in the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area
图 12 地震交叉迁移(1905—1957年)
红色圆点代表区域大地震事件及发生时间
Figure 12. Seismic cross migration(From 1905 to 1957)
图 13 三角区地震横向迁移平面图
黑色和红色圆点代表地震低速和中速迁移过程中的典型大地震事件；平行线段表示横向迁移等时线
Figure 13. Plan of lateral seismic migration in Triangle Area
图 14 新—藏三角地块地震横向迁移时空分布图
a—1950；b—1947；c—1934；d—1905；图中实线为低速，虚线为中速
Figure 14. Time space distribution of lateral seismic migration in the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area
图 15 三角区内近东西向断裂带M-t图
⑦—喜马拉雅带
Figure 15. The M-t plot of the E-W fault zone in Triangle Area
图 16 三角区内近东西向断裂带累积应变释放图
⑦—喜马拉雅带
Figure 16. The ∑E1/2 release curves of the E-W strike faults in the Triangle Area
表 1 新藏三角区主要地震纵向迁移带及其特征一览表
Table 1. Main seismic longitudinal migration zones and their characteristics in the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area
地震迁移带名称 迁移方式 出现时段/a 持续时间/a 迁移速率km/a 统计震级 帕米尔—贝加尔带 由西南向东北往复式迁移 1669—1761 92 50 M≥7.8 1902—1957 55 喜马拉雅带 东西向往复迁移 1803—1897 94 30 M≥7.8 1905—1950 45 2005—2015 10 南北带 由南向北迁移 1500—1561 61 50 M≥7.0 1713—1742 29 1789—1932 143 1913—1957 44 1988—2008 20 昆仑带 从西向东迁移 1956—2001 45 53 M≥7.0 祁连山带 从东南向西北 1920—1932 12 83 M≥7.5 
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