EVALUATING MEASURED IN-SITU STRESS STATE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH EARTHQUAKES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS: A CASE STUDY IN THE LONGMENSHAN FAULT ZONE
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摘要: 实测地应力状态在连续地震事件前后的变化特征，对于应用地应力实测数据探索开展地震预报等研究有重要意义，但一直以来缺少典型实例研究。以龙门山断裂带西南段的跷碛和映秀地区为研究区，利用该地区汶川地震前至芦山地震后获得的地应力实测数据，分析了表征地应力状态的特征参数在汶川和芦山地震事件前后变化特征，探讨了其对地震预报研究的意义。研究表明，跷碛地区地应力状态特征参数KHV、KHh和μm变化表现为芦山地震后值（QQ-14）大于汶川地震前（QQ-99），QQ-99结果大于汶川地震后值（QQ-09），而主应力梯度系数变化为QQ-09>QQ-14>QQ-99；分析认为KHV、KHh和μm变化规律能准确反映汶川和芦山地震事件前后跷碛地区构造应力场演化特征，而仅用主应力随深度变化梯度系数变化特征，不能完全准确地反映构造应力场调整变化情况；映秀地区，除KHh外，主应力随深度变化梯度系数、KHV和μm均表现为汶川地震后结果大于震前，其变化反映的应力场调整变化特征需要补充数据检验；利用地应力状态参数变化规律开展地震预报探索研究时，长期的、可对比的高质量地应力测量数据是研究有所突破的关键。研究成果对于龙门山地区构造应力场和减灾防灾研究有重要意义，对于应用地应力数据探索开展地震预报研究等有参考价值。Abstract: Evaluating measured in-situ stress state changes associated with large earthquake events plays a crucial role in earthquake prediction using measured in-situ stress data, whereas typical examples were not stated systematically yet. In this study, the Qiaoqi and Yingxiu regions which contain measured in-situ stress data crossing two large earthquakes (the Wenchuan earthquake and the Lushan earthquake) were selected as examples to study this issue. The changes of the stress state before and after the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes in the Qiaoqi and Yingxiu regions were analyzed by comparing the magnitudes of gradient coefficient, characteristic indexes KHV (ratio of the maximum horizontal stress to vertical stress), KHh (ratio of the maximum horizontal stress to minimum horizontal stress), and μm (shear stress normalized by average stress) obtained before and after these two earthquakes. The results indicate that the average magnitudes of KHV, KHh, and μm obtained after the Lushan earthquake (QQ-14) in Qiaoqi region are larger than those obtained before the Wenchuan earthquake (QQ-99); and the mean magnitudes of these parameters obtained from QQ-99 are larger than those obtained after the Wenchuan earthquake (QQ-09). However, the evolution feature of gradient coefficient before and after these two earthquakes can be characterized by QQ-09>QQ-14>QQ-99. Based on above estimation, it was stated that the changes of KHV, KHh, μm can reflect the evolution trend of the regional tectonic stress filed in Qiaoqi region, while the gradient coefficient can not reflect the evolution feature accurately enough. The magnitudes of gradient coefficient, KHV, and μm obtained from measured in-situ stress data after the Wenchuan earthquake exceed those after this large earthquake in Yingxiu region, while the KHh shows contradictory trend. The tectonic stress evolution in Yingxiu region should be verified by supplementing additional stress data. Long-term measured in-situ stress data which can be compared is the key element in significant breakthrough of earthquake prediction using the change laws of stress state characteristics parameters. Conclusions drawn in this study is of great significance for tectonic stress field estimation and disaster prevention and reduction in Longmenshan region, and can provide reference for earthquake prediction research.
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图 1 龙门山及邻区区域地质简图
Figure 1. Geological sketch map of the Longmenshan and adjacent regions
图 4 硗碛地区汶川—芦山地震前后主应力及特征参数随深度变化图
a—主应力随深度分布特征；b—KHV分布特征；c—KHh分布特征；d—μm分布特征
Figure 4. Variation of principal stress and characteristic parameters with depth before and after the Wenchuan-lushan earthquake in Qiaoqi area
图 5 映秀地区汶川地震前后主应力及特征参数随深度变化图
a—主应力随深度分布特征；b—KHV分布特征；c—KHh分布特征；d—μm分布特征
Figure 5. Variation of principal stress and characteristic parameters with depth before and after the Wenchuan earthquake in Yingxiu area
表 1 硗碛地区地应力数据
Table 1. In-situ stress data obtained in Qiaoqi region
钻孔 深度/m SH/MPa Sh/MPa Sv/MPa SH方向/(°) KHV KHh μm QQ-99[11] 180.25 15.42 8.28 4.77 3.23 1.86 0.53 187.55 14.44 8.19 4.96 N57°E 2.91 1.76 0.49 224.44 20.86 11.61 5.49 N63°E 3.80 1.80 0.58 233.29 18.07 11.11 6.18 N1°W 2.92 1.63 0.49 241.15 8.97 5.68 6.38 1.41 1.58 0.22 250.33 19.74 10.80 6.63 N55°E 2.98 1.83 0.50 259.10 21.38 11.68 6.86 3.12 1.83 0.51 264.37 7.65 5.39 7.00 N22°E 1.09 1.42 0.17 275.07 11.90 6.41 7.28 1.63 1.86 0.30 280.46 25.53 13.53 7.42 N39°E 3.44 1.89 0.55 QQ-09[29] 80.50 5.25 4.15 2.13 2.46 1.27 0.42 117.50 6.66 5.22 3.11 2.14 1.28 0.36 135.00 5.25 4.73 3.58 1.47 1.11 0.19 167.00 5.47 5.09 4.43 1.23 1.07 0.11 174.50 13.06 9.51 4.62 N49°W 2.83 1.37 0.48 192.07 15.27 12.09 5.09 N60°W 3.00 1.26 0.50 201.27 18.63 13.13 5.33 3.50 1.42 0.56 214.37 23.73 14.78 5.68 4.18 1.61 0.61 QQ-14[19] 128.00 21.93 11.18 3.39 N85°W 6.47 1.96 0.73 136.00 19.60 10.47 3.60 N63°W 5.44 1.87 0.69 159.00 21.97 11.71 4.21 5.22 1.88 0.68 182.00 25.83 18.47 4.82 N73°W 5.36 1.40 0.69 188.00 21.02 11.51 4.98 4.22 1.83 0.62 注: SH和Sh分别为实测最大、最小水平主应力，SV为垂向应力，按照等于上覆岩层重度计算，岩石平均密度取2.65 g/cm3。 
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表 2 映秀地区地应力数据
Table 2. In-situ stress data obtained in Yingxiu region
钻孔 深度/m SH/MPa Sh/MPa Sv/MPa SH方向/(°) KHV KHh μm YX-02[17] 246.70 7.47 4.57 6.67 1.12 1.63 0.24 300.00 12.55 7.20 8.11 1.55 1.74 0.27 354.20 13.80 8.10 9.58 1.44 1.70 0.26 422.20 16.58 9.83 11.41 N47°W 1.45 1.69 0.26 476.20 20.62 12.12 12.87 1.60 1.70 0.26 611.40 19.17 12.42 16.51 N54°W 1.16 1.54 0.21 677.10 21.23 13.43 18.29 1.16 1.58 0.23 705.70 26.36 16.16 19.07 N53°W 1.38 1.63 0.24 733.20 28.04 17.14 19.81 1.42 1.64 0.24 YX-09[11] 90.00 3.48 2.60 2.39 1.46 1.34 0.19 128.00 8.34 7.44 3.39 2.46 1.12 0.42 142.00 7.81 5.95 3.76 N56°W 2.08 1.31 0.35 171.00 15.62 11.81 4.53 3.45 1.32 0.55 178.00 16.36 9.68 4.72 3.47 1.69 0.55 185.00 13.11 8.35 4.90 2.68 1.57 0.46 注: 表 2符号意义同表 1。
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表 3 硗碛地区主应力随深度变化拟合结果
Table 3. Fitting results of in-situ stress data versus depth in Qiaoqi region
钻孔 主应力随深度分布拟合结果 深度范围 地应力结构 SH平均方向 SH Sh QQ-99 SH=0.019D+11.85 Sh=0.01D+6.49 0~300 m 逆冲型 N47°E QQ-09 SH=0.131D-9.26 Sh=0.083D-4.69 0~250 m 逆冲型 N55°W QQ-14 SH=0.041D+15.57 Sh=0.069D+1.77 0~200 m 逆冲型 N59°W
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表 4 映秀地区主应力随深度变化拟合结果
Table 4. Fitting results of in-situ stress data versus depth in Yingxiu region
钻孔 主应力随深度分布拟合结果 深度范围 地应力结构 SH平均方向 SH Sh YX-02 SH=0.034D+1.49 Sh=0.022D+0.23 0~800 m 走滑型 N51°W YX-09 SH=0.130D-8.54 Sh=0.074D-3.43 0~200 m 逆冲型 N56°W
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