基于孢粉证据的银川盆地MIS6—MIS5气候环境演变重建

许可可; 毕志伟; 杨会峰; 杨振京; 宁凯; 戴慧敏; 刘凯; 刘国栋

doi:10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2023091

基于孢粉证据的银川盆地MIS6—MIS5气候环境演变重建

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2023091

许可可^{1, 2,},
毕志伟^{2, 3, ,},
杨会峰^{2, 3},
杨振京^{2, 3},
宁凯^{2, 3},
戴慧敏¹,
刘凯¹,
刘国栋¹

1.
中国地质调查局沈阳地质调查中心，辽宁沈阳 110034
2.
中国地质调查局第四纪年代学与水文环境演变重点实验室，河北正定 050800
3.
中国地质科学院水文地质环境地质研究所，河北正定 050800

基金项目: 河北省自然科学基金项目（D2021504016）；中国地质调查局地质调查项目（DD20221779，DD20230210-01）

详细信息

作者简介:
许可可（1997—），男，硕士，助理工程师，主要从事第四纪地质环境变化研究。E-mail：kkxu_2020@163.com

通讯作者:
毕志伟（1981—），男，硕士，工程师，研究方向为第四纪地层与环境演变。E-mail：bizhiwei@mail.cgs.gov

中图分类号: P46；Q944.571
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-06-03
- 修回日期: 2023-07-01
- 录用日期: 2023-07-03

Reconstruction of climatic and environmental evolution in the Yinchuan Basin from MIS6 to MIS5 based on spore–pollen evidence

XU Keke^{1, 2
,},
BI Zhiwei^{2, 3
, ,},
YANG Huifeng^{2, 3},
YANG Zhenjing^{2, 3},
NING Kai^{2, 3},
DAI Huimin¹,
LIU Kai¹,
LIU Guodong¹

1.
Shenyang Center of China Geological Survey, Shenyang 110034, Liaoning, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Quaternary Geochronology and Hydrological Environment Evolution, China Geological Survey, Zhengding 050800, Hebei, China
3.
Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Zhengding 050800, Hebei, China

Funds: This research is financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province (Grant D2021504016) and the Geological Survey Projects of the China Geological Survey (Grants DD20221779 and DD20230210-01).

摘要

摘要:
MIS6—MIS5是冰期向间冰期转变的典型时期，MIS5阶段的气候要素可以和现代暖期类比，对其演变过程进行研究可以更好地了解暖期气候变化过程和未来气候变化趋势。利用现代孢粉和气象数据以及季风边缘区银川盆地的地层孢粉和粒度指标，通过训练集选择、主控气候参数筛选、5种重建模型的交叉验证、区域对比、显著性检验和生态学解释后认为局部加权加权平均偏最小二乘法（LWWA-PLS）重建结果最为稳健。MIS6—MIS5阶段气候演变可分为6个阶段：157~131 ka时期，年平均降水量（P_ann）为424.99 mm，7月平均温度（T_July）为22.58 ℃，气候较湿冷，喜湿冷乔木类植被发育；131~119 ka时期，P_ann为410.95 mm，T_July为23.62 ℃，喜暖乔木、草本发育，气候转湿暖；119~111 ka时期，P_ann为369.50 mm，T_July为22.53 ℃，喜冷草本、乔木发育，气候干冷；111~98 ka时期，P_ann为378.39 mm，T_July为22.86 ℃，早期喜暖乔木含量高，后期喜冷乔木含量上升，气候整体干暖，温度先上升后下降；98~85 ka时期，P_ann为278.24 mm，T_July为22.01 ℃，喜冷乔木较发育，该阶段气候整体最为干冷；85~78 ka时期，P_ann为364.21 mm，T_July为23.45 ℃，乔木、草本均较发育，气候转湿暖。对重建的气候参数进行集合经验模态分解（EEMD），结果较好地响应于23 ka岁差周期，与北半球中、高纬地质记录对比后认为，受太阳辐射影响的北大西洋气候变动主要通过西风环流以及大洋传输带驱动东亚季风的变化，进而影响银川盆地的气候变化。
- 银川盆地 /
- 孢粉 /
- 定量重建模型 /
- 气候环境演化 /
- 周期 /
- 驱动机制
Abstract:
MIS6 to MIS5 is a typical transition period from glacial to interglacial periods. The climate elements of MIS5 are similar to that of the current warm period, and studying its evolution process can better understand the climate change process of the current warm period and the future climate change trend. Based on modern spore–pollen and meteorological data, as well as stratigraphic spore–pollen and particle size indicators from the Yinchuan Basin in the monsoon margin area, the locally weighted average partial least squares method (LWWA-PLS) reconstruction results are considered to be the most robust after the selection of the training set, screening of the master climate parameters, cross-validation of the five reconstruction models, regional comparison, significance testing, and ecological interpretation. The climatic evolution from MIS6 to MIS5 can be divided into six stages. 157 to 131 ka, the climate was cold and humid, where wet and cold-loving arborvitae vegetation developed, with the average annual precipitation (P_ann) being 424.99 mm and the average temperature in July (T_July) 22.58 ℃. 131 to 119 ka, the climate turned wet and warm, and warm-loving trees and herbs developed; the P_ann was 410.95 mm, and the T_July was 23.62 ℃. 119 to 111 ka, the P_ann was 369.50 mm, and the T_July was 22.53 ℃; cold-loving herbs and trees developed in a cold and dry climate. 111 to 98 ka, the P_ann is 378.39 mm, and the T_July is 22.86 ℃; warm-loving trees account for a higher proportion in the early stage, and the number of cold-loving trees increased in the late stage; the climate was overall dry and warm, and the temperature increased first and then decreased. 98 to 85 ka, the P_ann was 278.24, and the T_July was 22.01 ℃; the overall climate was the driest and coldest, and cold-loving trees developed well. 85 to 78 ka, the P_ann was 364.21 mm, and T_July was 23.45 ℃; the climate turned warm and humid, and trees and herbs developed in this period. The reconstructed climate parameters' ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) results respond well to the 23 ka precessional cycle. Comparison with the mid- and high-latitude geologic record of the Northern Hemisphere suggests that solar radiation-influenced climatic variability in the North Atlantic primarily drives changes in the East Asian monsoon through the westerly wind circulation as well as the oceanic transport zone, which in turn influences climatic change in the Yinchuan Basin.
- Yinchuan Basin /
- spore–pollen /
- quantitative reconstruction model /
- climatic and environmental evolution /
- cycle /
- driving mechanism

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图 1 LS01钻孔和表土样点位置图

Figure 1. Location of Borehole LS01 and modern sopre–pollen sites

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图 2 LS01钻孔岩性柱状图和年龄模型重建结果

Figure 2. Lithologic histogram and age model reconstruction results of Borehole LS01

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图 3 LS01钻孔岩芯孢粉百分比含量图谱

AP—乔木科属含量总和；NAP—非乔木科属含量总和

Figure 3. Spore–pollen percentage map of Borehole LS01

AP–content of Arboricaceae; NAP–content of non-Arboricaceae

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图 4 现代样品和地层化石中孢粉科属最大丰度值对比图

红色圆圈—化石样品的孢粉最大丰度大于现代样品孢粉丰度的科属

Figure 4. Comparison chart of maximum abundance values of sopre-pollen species from the modern and Borehole LS01 samples

Red circles–family and genus in which the maximum spore–pollen abundance in the borehole samples are greater than the spore–pollen abundance in the modern samples

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图 5 主要孢粉科属百分比覆盖率箱型图

黄色—LS01钻孔样品；绿色—现代样品

Figure 5. Box chart of percentage coverage of main spore–pollen species in the modern and LS01 borehole samples

Yellow–LS01 borehole samples; Green–modern samples

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图 6 气候参数相关性结果

Figure 6. Correlation results of climatic variables

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图 7 重建结果显著性检验

红色虚线—95%随机重建结果解释方差的比例；蓝色线—化石样品PCA第一轴解释的方差比例

Figure 7. Significance test of the reconstruction results

Red dotted line–proportion of variance explained by 95% random reconstruction results; Blue line–proportion of variance explained by the first axis of a principal components analysis (PCA) of the borehole samples

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图 8 主要孢粉种类最适生态位及生态幅度

Figure 8. Optimum ecological niche and ecological range of main spore–pollen species

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图 9 现代主要孢粉科属含量与年平均降水Huisman–Olff–Fresco（HOF）分析结果

a—Pinus；b—Picea；c—Betula；d—Cupressaceae；e—Carpinus；f—Juglans；g—Quercus deciduous；h—Ulmus；i—Hippophae；j—Elaeagnus；k—Poaceae；l—Chenopodiaceae；m—Asteraceae；n—Artemisia；o—Ranunculus；p—Polygonum；q—Rosaceae；r—Lamiaceae；s—Humulus；t—Tribulus

Figure 9. Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) analysis results of main modern spore–pollen species contents vs. mean annual precipitation

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图 10 现代主要孢粉科属含量与年平均温度HOF分析结果

Figure 10. HOF results of main modern sopre–pollen species contents vs. mean annual temperature

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图 11 现代主要孢粉科属含量与1月平均温度HOF分析结果

Figure 11. HOF results of main modern sopre–pollen species contents vs. mean temperature in January

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图 12 现代主要孢粉科属含量与7月平均温度HOF分析结果

Figure 12. HOF results of main modern sopre–pollen species contents vs. mean temperature in July

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图 13 气候环境重建因子对比

Figure 13. Comparison of peleoclimatic and environmental reconstruction factors

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图 14 重建降水量和温度的EEMD结果

Figure 14. EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) results of reconstructed precipitation and temperature

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图 15 重建降水和温度与北半球中高纬度地质记录对比

黄色表示暖期；蓝色表示冷期；GIS为格陵兰冰芯记录的千尺度气候突变事件；CIS为亚洲季风记录的千年尺度气候突变事件a—北半球N60°夏季太阳辐射（Berger and Loutre，1991）；b、c—文章重建的T_July和P_ann；d—NGRIP冰芯的δ¹⁸O （Veres et al.， 2013；AICC 2012时标）；e—三宝洞石笋的δ¹⁸O (Cheng et al.，2016)；f—LR04全球深海地区生物的δ¹⁸O （Lisiecki and Raymo，2005）

Figure 15. Comparison of reconstructed precipitation and temperature with geologic records at mid- to high-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere

(a) N65° summer insolution (Berger and Loutre, 1991); (b and c) Reconstructed T_July and P_ann in this research; (d) δ¹⁸O recorded by NGRIP ice core (Veres et al., 2013); (e) δ¹⁸O recorded by Sanbao Cave (Cheng et al.，2016); (f) LR04 δ¹⁸O record (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005)Yellow–warm stage; Blue–cold stage; GIS–the abrupt climate change events at the kilo-scale recorded by Greenland ice core; CIS–the abrupt climate change events at the millennial scale recorded by the Asian monsoon

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表 1 LS01钻孔光释光测年结果（许可可等，2021）

Table 1. OSL ages and dating parameters of Borehole LS01(Xu et al., 2021)

编号	α系数	深度/m	U/×10⁻⁶	Th/×10⁻⁶	K/%	含水率/%	剂量率/（Gy/ka）	等效剂量/Gy	年龄/ka
LS01-OSL-1	0.04±0.02	15.3	2.71	14.38	2.17	25±5	3.78±0.21	300.64±11.84	79.58±5.42
LS01-OSL-2	0.04±0.02	26.5	1.95	11.24	1.84	29±5	2.91±0.16	296.12±11.32	101.72±6.67
LS01-OSL-3	0.04±0.02	41.7	1.90	11.33	1.72	28±5	2.35±0.07	262.22±2.11	111.58±3.49
LS01-OSL-4	0.04±0.02	60.2	2.55	10.00	1.75	20±5	2.61±0.09	325.65±1.61	124.91±4.17
LS01-OSL-5	0.04±0.02	75.4	1.83	7.71	1.74	29±5	2.12±0.07	301.41±1.32	142.17±4.60
LS01-OSL-6	0.04±0.02	102.8	2.17	4.92	2.13	20±5	2.93±0.15	445.38±43.82	151.85±16.81

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表 2 气候参数选择结果

Table 2. Selection of climatic variables

气候参数	所有参数	移除 T_ann	移除 T_Jan	移除 T_July	单气候变量解释度
气候参数	所有参数	移除 T_ann	移除 T_Jan	移除 T_July	解释度	贡献率%	P
P_ann	2.68	2.61	2.68	2.60	1.10	55.50	0.002
T_July	104.15	3.08	4.66	—	0.50	24.50	0.002
T_ann	260.41	—	7.70	5.08	0.30	14.00	0.002
T_Jan	69.49	1.35	—	6.99	0.10	6.00	0.002

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表 3 不同重建模型交叉验证结果

Table 3. Cross-validation results of different reconstruction models

重建模型	P_ann/mm		T_July/℃		重建模型	P_ann/mm		T_July/℃
重建模型	RMSEP	R²	RMSEP	R²	重建模型	RMSEP	R²	RMSEP	R²
MAT-500 km	75.46	0.77	1.96	0.77	LWWA(classical)-k=30	71.88	0.79	3.01	0.79
MAT-1000 km	95.71	0.89	2.68	0.82	LWWA(inverse)-k=40	66.19	0.82	2.61	0.84
MAT-1500 km	136.06	0.89	2.71	0.83	LWWA(classical)-k=40	74.44	0.78	3.14	0.78
WA(inverse)-500 km	94.61	0.61	2.51	0.62	LWWA(inverse)-k=50	67.17	0.81	2.63	0.84
WA(classical)-500 km	119.06	0.63	3.18	0.62	LWWA(classical)-k=50	76.21	0.78	3.23	0.77
WA(monotonic)-500 km	91.20	0.65	2.46	0.63	LWWA(inverse)-k=60	68.29	0.81	2.64	0.84
WA(expanded)-500 km	99.88	0.63	2.66	0.62	LWWA(classical)-k=60	78.64	0.77	3.32	0.77
WA(none)-500 km	114.62	0.63	2.97	0.62	LWWA(inverse)-k=70	68.85	0.80	2.69	0.83
WA(inverse)-1000 km	156.42	0.71	4.00	0.61	LWWA(classical)-k=70	78.60	0.78	3.45	0.75
WA(classical)-1000 km	184.77	0.71	5.11	0.61	LWWA(inverse)-k=80	69.74	0.80	2.71	0.83
WA(monotonic)-1000 km	151.50	0.73	3.78	0.65	LWWA(classical)-k=80	78.68	0.78	3.54	0.75
WA(expanded)-1000 km	162.79	0.71	4.23	0.61	LWWA(inverse)-k=90	70.48	0.79	2.74	0.83
WA(none)-1000 km	183.41	0.71	4.58	0.61	LWWA(classical)-k=90	79.86	0.77	3.66	0.73
WA(inverse)-1500 km	197.17	0.78	4.11	0.61	LWWA(inverse)-k=100	70.91	0.79	2.76	0.82
WA(classical)-1500 km	223.23	0.78	5.25	0.61	LWWA(classical)-k=100	80.19	0.77	3.73	0.73
WA(monotonic)-1500 km	193.36	0.78	3.91	0.64	LWW-PLS-k=20	58.89	0.86	1.67	0.85
WA(expanded)-1500 km	203.19	0.78	4.35	0.61	LWW-PLS-k=30	66.00	0.82	1.76	0.81
WA(none)-1500 km	231.71	0.78	4.67	0.61	LWW-PLS-k=40	66.22	0.82	1.78	0.81
WA-PLS(Comp5)-500 km	59.09	0.85	1.67	0.83	LWW-PLS-k=50	67.10	0.81	1.81	0.80
WA-PLS(Comp5)-1000 km	112.40	0.85	2.98	0.78	LWW-PLS-k=60	68.11	0.81	1.82	0.80
WA-PLS(Comp5)-1500 km	138.94	0.89	3.02	0.79	LWW-PLS-k=70	68.66	0.80	1.82	0.80
LWWA(inverse)-k=20	59.00	0.86	1.70	0.83	LWW-PLS-k=80	69.11	0.80	1.84	0.79
LWWA(classical)-k=20	68.29	0.81	2.86	0.81	LWW-PLS-k=90	70.21	0.79	1.86	0.79
LWWA(inverse)-k=30	66.22	0.82	2.59	0.84	LWW-PLS-k=100	70.60	0.79	1.89	0.78

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表 4 与其他地区重建模型交叉验证结果对比

Table 4. Comparison of cross-validation results with other regional reconstruction models

文献来源	研究区	年代	最优模型	重建参数	RMSEP	R²
梁琛等，2020	青藏高原若尔盖地区	全新世	WA-PLS	T_July	2.04 ℃	0.83
	青藏高原若尔盖地区	全新世	WA-PLS	T_July	2.04 ℃	0.81
	青藏高原若尔盖地区	全新世	WA-PLS	T_July	1.91 ℃	0.82
Zhao et al.，2021	青藏高原若尔盖地区	1.74 Ma以来	LWWA-PLS	T_July	3.06 ℃	0.81
Zhao et al.，2021	青藏高原若尔盖地区	1.74 Ma以来	LWWA-PLS	P_ann	158 mm	0.67
Lu et al.，2011	青藏高原沉措地区	全新世	LWWA	T_July	2.1 ℃	0.78
Lu et al.，2011	青藏高原沉措地区	全新世	LWWA	P_ann	109 mm	0.89
陈建徽等，2018	黄土高原公海	14 ka以来	WA-PLS	P_ann	85.85 mm	0.84
陈建徽等，2018	黄土高原六盘山天池	6.2 ka以来	WA-PLS	P_ann	74.70 mm	0.87
Wen et al.，2013	内蒙古呼伦湖	全新世	WA-PLS	P_ann	53.9 mm	0.88
Wen et al.，2013	内蒙古呼伦湖	全新世	WA-PLS	T_July	1.46 ℃	0.69
Xu et al.，2010	河南安阳	全新世	MAT	P_ann	79.00 mm	0.83
	河南安阳	全新世	MAT	T_July	2.6 ℃	0.52
	河南安阳	全新世	WA-PLS	P_ann	70.00 mm	0.87
	河南安阳	全新世	WA-PLS	T_July	2.3 ℃	0.61
文中	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	LWWA-PLS	P_ann	58.89 mm	0.86
	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	LWWA-PLS	T_July	1.67 ℃	0.85
	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	LWWA	P_ann	68.29 mm	0.81
	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	LWWA	T_July	2.86 ℃	0.81
	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	WA-PLS	P_ann	59.09 mm	0.85
	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	WA-PLS	T_July	1.67 ℃	0.83
	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	MAT	P_ann	75.46 mm	0.77
	银川盆地	MIS6—MIS5	MAT	T_July	1.96 ℃	0.77

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表 5 重建温度和降水量的IMF贡献率

Table 5. IMF (Intrinsic Mode Function) contribution rate of reconstructed temperature and precipitation

气候参数	特征	IMF1	IMF2	IMF3	IMF4	IMF5
T_July	周期/ka	1.1	2.3	12	11	45
	贡献率/%	0.2	0.3	55	43	1.5
	排名	5	4	1	2	3
P_ann	周期/ka	0.9	5	12	25	27
	贡献率/%	0.1	0.2	55	42	2.7
	排名	5	4	1	2	3

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参考文献(122)

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