Characteristics and risk assessment of debris flows in the Wandong catchment after the MS 6.8 Luding earthquake
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摘要:
2022年9月5日四川泸定县发生MS 6.8级地震, 地震诱发大量同震崩滑体, 并导致湾东河断流。基于现场调查、影像解译和区域地质资料分析, 采用空间统计和水文计算的方法, 对湾东河流域同震崩滑体分布特征和潜在泥石流危险性进行了研究。结果表明: 湾东河流域内同震崩滑体主要分布在地震烈度Ⅸ度区, 规模以中小型为主, 主要沿沟道两侧展布, 尤其是单薄山脊两侧临空面发育密度较大, 距断层距离和坡度对其分布具有明显的控灾效应; 未来湾东河流域暴发溃决型泥石流的冲出量可能为同等触发条件下震前泥石流的约两倍。依此提出了加强流域内溃决型泥石流风险防范, 尽快通过综合监测预警获取泥石流发生的临界雨量值, 在泥石流防治工程设计中应充分考虑泥石流规模放大系数等防灾减灾建议, 为泸定地震后泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供科学参考。
Abstract:On Sep. 5, 2022, an MS 6.8 earthquake struck Luding County. The earthquake triggered large amounts of co-seismic landslides, which blocked the Wandong River for nearly 24 hours. Field surveys, image interpretation, spatial statistics, and hydro-logical calculations were used to investigate the characteristics of co-seismic landslides and the risk of debris flow following the earthquake. According to the findings, co-seismic landslides are primarily found in areas of earthquake intensity IX, and their sizes are typically small and medium. They are distributed along both sides of the channel, particularly on both sides of the thin ridge facing the air. The distance from the fault and slope controls the distribution of co-seismic landslides. The volume of debris flow runout in the Wandong catchment may be twice that of the debris flow prior to the earthquake. On this basis, the following disaster prevention and mitigation suggestions were put forward. The risk of runout debris flow in the catchment should be strengthened; The value of triggering rainfall of debris flow should be obtained as soon as possible through comprehensive monitoring and early warning; The scale amplification factor of debris flow should be fully considered in the design of debris flow prevention and control projects. This research can be used as a scientific reference for disaster prevention and mitigation of post-earthquake debris flows.
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图 3 泸定地震震前和震后崩滑体分布图
a—同震崩滑体分布图；b—震前崩滑体分布图
Figure 3. Landslide distribution map of pre and post the Luding earthquake
(a) Co-seismic landslide distribution map; (b) Pre-seismic landslide distribution map
图 5 同震崩滑体面积及密度与距断层距离的关系统计图
Figure 5. Graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus distance from fault
图 6 同震崩滑体面积及密度与高程的关系统计图
Figure 6. Graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus elevation
图 7 同震崩滑体面积与坡度的关系统计图
Figure 7. Graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus slope steepness
图 8 同震崩滑体面积及密度与坡向的关系雷达图
Figure 8. Radar graph of co-seismic landslide area and density vesus aspect
图 9 堆积在沟道中的同震崩滑体碎屑物
Figure 9. The debris deposition of co-seismic landslides along the channel
图 10 泸定地震震前和震后湾东河主沟下游滑坡发育及堰塞湖分布情况
a—地震后河道堵塞形成堰塞湖分布图(影像来源于高分6号)；b—地震前河道情况(影像来源于谷歌地图)
Figure 10. The distribution of co-seismic landslides and dammed lakes in the main downstream channel of the Wandong catchment pre and post the Luding earthquake
(a) The distribution of the dammed lakes formed by co-seismic landslides (The image is from GF6); (b) The state of the channel before the earthquake (The image is from Google Earth)
表 1 数据清单
Table 1. Data list
类型 分辨率 来源 岩性数据 1∶5万 成都地质调查中心 高程数据 12.5 m ALOS全球数字地表模型
(https://www.eorc.jaxa.jp)多光谱影像数据 10 m 哨兵2；日期：2022-09-11、2021-04-29
(https://scihub.copernicus.eu)全彩影像 2 m 高分2号、高分6号；日期：2022-09-10
(由四川省地质调查院提供)
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表 2 泥石流冲出量计算参数表
Table 2. Parameters of debris flow runout
流域名称 容重/(t/m3) 堵塞系数 湾东河主沟 1.80 4.5 红岩沟 2.15 3.5 银厂沟 2.15 3.5
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表 3 震后湾东沟流域不同频率下泥石流特征值
Table 3. Characteristic values of debris flow at different frequencies in the Wandong catchment
参数 流域名称 降雨频率P/% 5 2 1 0.5 洪水洪峰流量/(m3/s) 湾东河 281 338 376 461 红岩沟 92 106 117 139 银厂沟 68 77 85 99 泥石流洪峰流量/(m3/s) 湾东河 1330 1600 1778 2178 红岩沟 606 702 770 915 银厂沟 451 512 558 652 一次冲出固体物质总量/(×105 m3) 湾东河 6.8* 6.7* 7.9* 8.9* 红岩沟 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.3 银厂沟 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 *假定主沟道内8个堰塞湖全部溃决，可提供3.6×105 m3的固体物质
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