Reactivation mechanism and stability trend prediction of the Huangci No.2 landslide, Heifangtai, Gansu Province, China
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摘要: 为探究2025年12月10日甘肃黑方台黄茨2号滑坡复活滑动的致灾机制、动力演化过程及灾后稳定性发展趋势，综合采用野外地质调查与瞬变电磁法解析滑坡深部结构，基于Massflow数值模拟进行三维动力学全过程反演，并运用三维极限平衡法对灾后堆积体与高陡后壁开展定量稳定性评价与运动学预测。得到以下结果：滑坡复活是坡脚开挖、长期灌溉与气象条件耦合的结果，冬季“冻结滞水促滑效应”为直接诱因，表层冻结封堵渗流通道致使深部孔隙水压力积聚，诱发黄土−泥岩顺层滑动；滑坡整体历时22时10分，累计滑移310 m，Massflow反演重现了“蠕滑–加速滑动–减速堆积–停滞压密”4个阶段演化过程，堆积形态交并比达85.85%；定量计算表明，当前堆积体安全系数大于1.15，处于沉降压密的基本稳定状态；但在极端饱和工况下，高陡后壁潜在滑塌方量可达40.9×104 m3，最大滑移距离约640 m。分析表明，滑坡的深层复活受控于冻结滞水及多重扰动机制，当前主体虽已趋于稳定，但极易发生高陡后壁次生失稳，必须建立长期动态监测体系以严防高位灾害。文章定量揭示了“冻结滞水促滑”这一冬季黄土滑坡的特殊诱发机制，突破了黄土滑坡仅依赖降雨、灌溉等单一水动力成因的传统认识；为黑方台及类似灌区黄土滑坡的冬季防灾减灾、应急监测部署和地质灾害早期识别提供了直接的技术参考与理论支撑，对保障当地人民群众生命财产安全具有重要的现实价值。Abstract:
Objective To investigate the disaster-causing mechanisms, dynamic evolution, and post-disaster stability trends associated with the reactivation of the Huangci No. 2 landslide in Heifangtai, Gansu Province, on December 10, 2025, field geological investigations and the transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveys were conducted to characterize the deep structure of the landslide. Methods The entire three-dimensional dynamic sliding process was back-analyzed using the Massflow numerical model, and the three-dimensional limit equilibrium method was employed to quantitatively evaluate the post-event deposit and the stability of the high and steep rear slope and to predict their potential kinematic responses. Results (1) The reactivation of the landslide resulted from the coupled effects of slope-toe excavation, long-term irrigation, and winter freezing conditions. The freezing-induced water-retention and pore-pressure buildup effect acted as the direct trigger: surface freezing blocked seepage pathways, causing pore-water pressure to accumulate at depth and triggering a bedding-parallel slide along the loess–mudstone contact. (2) The entire sliding process lasted 22 h 10 min, with a cumulative displacement of 310 m. The Massflow simulation reproduced four stages of the dynamic evolution: creep, accelerated sliding, deceleration and deposition, and stagnation and compaction. The intersection over union (IoU) of the simulated and observed deposition morphologies reached 85.85%. (3) Quantitative calculations indicate that the current deposit has a factor of safety greater than 1.15, suggesting a relatively stable state characterized by settlement and consolidation. However, under extreme saturation conditions, the potential failure volume of the high and steep rear slope could reach 40.9×104 m3, with a maximum sliding distance of approximately 640 m. Conclusions The reactivation of the landslide was controlled by freezing-induced water retention and pore-water pressure buildup, together with multiple external disturbances. Although the main landslide body has generally stabilized, the high and steep rear slope remains highly susceptible to secondary failure. A long-term dynamic monitoring system should therefore be established to mitigate the risk of high-elevation secondary hazards. Significance This study quantitatively demonstrates freezing-induced water retention and pore-water pressure buildup as a distinctive triggering mechanism for winter loess landslides, extending the conventional understanding of loess landslide initiation beyond single hydrodynamic factors such as rainfall and irrigation. The findings provide direct technical references and theoretical support for winter landslide prevention and mitigation, emergency monitoring deployment, and early identification of geological hazards in Heifangtai and other irrigated loess tablelands, thereby contributing to the protection of local communities and their property. -
图 1 黄茨滑坡地理位置图
a—滑坡群分布图；b—黄茨滑坡位置示意图
Figure 1. Geographic location of the Huangci landslide
(a) Distribution of landslide groups; (b) Location of the Huangci landslide
图 2 黄茨2号滑坡正射影像图
Qhal+pl—第四系全新统冲洪积层；Qhdel—第四系全新统残坡积层；Qp2eol—第四系中更新统风积层；K—白垩系
Figure 2. Orthophoto of the Huangci No. 2 landslide
Qhal+pl represents alluvial and diluvial deposits of the Quaternary Holocene; Qhdel represents residual and colluvial deposits of the Quaternary Holocene; Qp2eol represents aeolian deposits of the Quaternary Middle Pleistocene; and K represents Cretaceous strata.
图 5 滑坡体2025年12月10日16时航拍图
Figure 5. UAV aerial photograph of the landslide mass at 16:00 on December 10
图 6 黄茨2号滑坡变形破坏特征
Figure 6. Deformation and failure characteristics of the Huangci No. 2 landslide
(a) Sinkhole at the rear of the landslide; (b) Bulging cracks in the middle-to-upper part of the landslide mass; (c) Uplift in the middle-to-lower part of the landslide mass; (d) Road heave in the lower part of the landslide mass
图 7 黑方台黄茨2号滑坡前气温变化曲线图
Figure 7. Variation in air temperature before the reactivation of the Huangci No. 2 landslide in Heifangtai
图 8 黄茨2号滑坡复活机制示意图
Figure 8. Schematic illustration of the reactivation mechanism of the Huangci No. 2 landslide
(a) Disruption of stress equilibrium in the slope caused by toe excavation; (b) Long-term groundwater infiltration along pre-existing slip surfaces and consequent softening of the rock and soil mass; (c) Rise in the groundwater level, with traction at the toe and pushing from the rear
图 10 黄茨2号滑坡滑体厚度分布图
Figure 10. Thickness distribution of the sliding mass of the Huangci No. 2 landslide
图 11 黄茨2号滑坡动力过程复演
Figure 11. Numerical reconstruction of the dynamic process of the Huangci No. 2 landslide
图 13 滑坡后壁失稳动力过程模拟
Figure 13. Simulation of the dynamic failure process of the landslide rear wall
图 14 灾后四日形变量分析图
Figure 14. Deformation analysis over the four days following the landslide reactivation
(a) Deformation on December 12, 2025; (b) Deformation on December 13, 2025; (c) Deformation on December 14, 2025; (d) Deformation on December 15, 2025
图 16 滑坡堆积体安全系数计算模型
Figure 16. Computational model for calculating the factor of safety of the landslide deposit
图 17 地下水高程变化−安全系数分析图
Figure 17. Variation in the factor of safety with groundwater elevation
表 1 核心物理力学性质参数
Table 1. Key physicomechanical parameters
平均密度$ \overline{\rho } $/（kg/m3） 黏聚力c/Pa 内摩擦角$ \varphi $/ （°） 孔隙水压力系数$ \lambda $ 1400 5000 25 0.3 
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