Mechanical property prediction and 3D modeling via statistical regression and prestack inversion: a case study from the Bonan Sag
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摘要: 目前在非常规油气开发中存在着储层结构复杂、岩石力学特性不明确等问题。在水平井的井轨迹及压裂方案设计过程中，通常需要依靠岩石力学模型进行段簇划分与设计，从而增大改造体积，降低套变风险，实现非常规油气高效开发。岩石力学模型在井轨迹靶区能够同时在纵向及横向上以较高分辨率体现力学参数的连续变化，因此面向模型需求，提供了一种基于统计回归和叠前反演的力学参数预测及建模方法。首先，基于岩芯试验数据及测井资料，建立弹性参数与岩石力学参数的定量关系并加以分析。其次，利用钻井资料及地震资料开展三维叠前反演，获取精确的纵波速度、密度、泊松比和杨氏模量等弹性参数。最后，根据定量关系计算出单轴抗压强度数据体，并利用测井数据及时间域平滑速度场构建深度域构造模型，提取相关属性后进一步建立目的区块的三维力学参数模型。模型和实际数据表明研究成果表征了岩石力学参数的三维空间变化特征，可为该区后续的油气勘探开发提供可信的基础数据与理论依据，具有较强的理论创新与实际应用价值。Abstract:
Objective Unconventional oil and gas development is frequently hindered by complex reservoir structures and unquantified rock mechanical properties. To optimize horizontal well trajectories and hydraulic fracturing designs—thereby expanding the stimulated reservoir volume, mitigating casing deformation risks, and ensuring efficient production—high-resolution rock mechanical models are essential. This study proposes an integrated workflow combining statistical regression and 3D prestack seismic inversion to accurately characterize the vertical and lateral variations of rock mechanical parameters in target zones. Methods Using core test results and well log data, quantitative empirical relationships were established between elastic attributes and rock mechanical properties. A 3D prestack seismic inversion was subsequently performed using integrated drilling and seismic datasets to extract precise elastic parameters, including compressive wave velocity, bulk density, Poisson's ratio, and Young's modulus. Results The workflow was applied to tight glutenite reservoirs in the Bonan Sag, yielding three key findings: (1) Young's modulus demonstrated a strong correlation (e.g., R2 > 0.75) with Uniaxial Compressive Strength (UCS) . In these low-porosity glutenites, rock mechanics are primarily governed by lithology and gravel content rather than burial depth, justifying a unified prediction model. (2) By integrating well logging and a time-depth velocity field, a depth-domain structural framework was established. Attribute extraction and property modeling generated a continuous 3D volume of rock mechanical parameters, bridging the spatial gaps inherent in discrete log and core measurements. (3) The resulting 3D mechanical volume provides critical input for hydraulic fracturing optimization. It enables precise profiling along horizontal wellbores, rational stage and cluster spacing, pumping parameter optimization, and improved fracture conductivity, thereby maximizing single-well productivity. Conclusions Integrating prestack seismic inversion with statistical regression offers a robust approach for 3D geomechanical characterization in heterogeneous tight glutenites. This methodology successfully bridges the gap between petrophysics and seismic geophysics, resolving key uncertainties in complex unconventional plays. Significance This study provides a practical and scalable framework for predicting 3D rock mechanical properties. The findings offer a reliable data foundation for defining mechanical boundaries and optimizing stimulation treatments in heterogeneous unconventional reservoirs. -
图 2 单轴压缩试验所得应力−应变全曲线
Figure 2. Complete stress–strain curves from uniaxial compression tests
图 3 抗压强度与杨氏模量、纵波速度及泊松比的相关性
Figure 3. Correlations between uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and elastic parameters
(a) Linear relationship with Young's modulus; (b) Linear relationship with P-wave velocity; (c) Linear relationship with Poisson's ratio; (d) Nonlinear relationship with Young's modulus
图 6 深度域构造模型
X、Y—大地坐标系，X指示南北方向，Y指示东西方向；Z—垂直埋深，负号指以地表为基准面的向下埋深
Figure 6. Depth-domain structural framework model
(a) Smoothed 3D velocity field; (b) Depth domain stratigraphic horizons; (c) Well log dataset; (d) Structural model X-axis and Y-axis represent geodetic coordinate system, theX-axis indicates the north-south direction, the Y-axis indicates the east-west direction. Z-axis represents sub-surface depth below ground level in meters, where negative values denote depth beneath the surface datum.
图 7 力学参数属性模型
X、Y—大地坐标系，X指示南北方向，Y指示东西方向；Z—垂直埋深，负号指以地表为基准面的向下埋深
Figure 7. 3D rock mechanical property models
(a) Young's modulus; (b) Uniaxial compressive strength
图 8 水力裂缝模拟效果图
图中的数字1~21为裂缝模拟结果的段簇划分编号；X、Y—大地坐标系，X指示南北方向，Y指示东西方向；Z—垂直埋深，负号指以地表为基准面的向下埋深
Figure 8. Simulation results of hydraulic fractures
Numbers 1 through 21 denote the designated fracture stage and cluster identifiers.
表 1 部分岩芯试验数据
Table 1. Representative core test data
岩芯
序号深度/m 抗压强
度/MPa密度/
（g/cm3）泊松比 杨氏模
量/MPa纵波速
度/（m/s）3 4612.3 79 2.43 0.080 20.687 3912.225 1 3784.9 33 2.35 0.248 15.480 3718.661 5 3797.1 30 2.45 0.293 7.962 3223.363 8 3788.8 15 2.5 0.177 25.253 3207.832 9 3370.0 54 2.53 0.100 15.800 3464.137 18 3378.1 50 2.55 0.190 21.100 4167.546 13 3374.0 37 2.58 0.240 14.000 4100.432 19 3381.0 87 2.42 0.130 22.500 3236.335 
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表 2 回归统计及方差分析表
Table 2. Regression statistics and analysis of variance
评价指标 杨氏模量与
抗压强度纵波速度与
抗压强度泊松比与
抗压强度$ R $ 0.870754 0.118560 0.697835 $ {R}^{2} $ 0.758213 0.014056 0.486973 $ {R_{\text{a}}}^{2} $ 0.717915 −0.150267 0.401469 标准误差 13.134310 26.522633 19.132003 SSR 3245.814349 60.174543 2084.673812 MSR 463.687764 8.596363 292.667687 F-统计量 18.815212 0.085542 5.695308 P值 0.655199 0.821027 0.003008
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