甘肃积石山<i>M</i><sub>S </sub>6.2地震地质灾害发育特征及孕灾环境分析

陆诗铭; 吴中海; 黄婷

doi:10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2024069

甘肃积石山M_S6.2地震地质灾害发育特征及孕灾环境分析

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2024069

陆诗铭^1,,
吴中海^{1, 2, ,},
黄婷^{1, 3}

1.
中国地质科学院地质力学研究所，北京 100081
2.
自然资源部活动构造与地质安全重点实验室，北京 100081
3.
北京大学地球与空间科学学院，北京 100081

基金项目: 中国地质调查项目（ DD20230002 ）；国家自然科学基金云南联合基金项目（ U2002211 ）；西藏自治区第1次全国自然灾害综合风险普查项目（ 2022 年地震灾害部分）（ XZLX-BMC-2022-053）

详细信息

作者简介:
陆诗铭（1996—），女，在读博士，主要从事青藏高原活动构造研究。Email：lushiming0901@163.com

通讯作者:
吴中海（1974—），男，研究员，从事新构造与活动构造方面的研究工作。Email：wuzhonghai8848@foxmail.com

中图分类号: P546
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-06-16
- 修回日期: 2024-10-07
- 录用日期: 2024-11-15
- 刊出日期: 2025-02-27

Characteristics of geological hazard development and disaster-inducing environment of the M_S6.2 earthquake in Jishishan, Gansu Province

LU Shiming^1
,,
WU Zhonghai^{1, 2
, ,},
HUANG Ting^{1, 3}

1.
Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Geological Safety, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
3.
School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: This research is financially supported by the China Geological Survey Project (DD20230002); Yunnan Joint Fund Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U2002211) and the first National Comprehensive Natural Hazard Risk Census Project of the Xizang Autonomous Region (2022 Seismic Hazard Part) (XZLX-BMC-2022-053).

摘要

摘要: 2023年12月18日甘肃省临夏州积石山县发生M_S 6.2地震，此次地震诱发了崩塌、滑坡和泥流等一系列地质次生灾害，是近年来中国6级以上地震损失极其严重的一次。综合分析区域孕灾环境及地质次生灾害发育特征发现，拉脊山地区海拔高、地形复杂、活断裂作用显著以及第四纪松散堆积物覆盖广且厚度大等因素，使得该地区在地震作用下极易产生蠕滑−拉裂破坏并诱发滑坡等地质次生灾害。利用层次分析法综合考虑断裂、地层岩性、植被覆盖、坡度及降水5个关键因子对积石山区域地质灾害发育的影响。研究结果显示，地层岩性是区域地质次生灾害的主导因素，其权重可达42%；其次是断层，权重约占26%；而降水的影响权重虽然只占6%，但也不可忽视。积石山及其邻区地质次生灾害危险区主要集中在震中周围的拉脊山前缘一带，呈条状分布，与VIII度地震烈度区域大体一致。地质次生灾害点受软弱地质环境影响为主，集中在拉脊山断裂带下盘，尤其是积石山县、大家河镇和白藏镇等地，灾害分布密集且受地震影响显著，需要重点监测及预防，同时对第四系黄土层防护工程也应予以足够重视。另一方面，在余震分布密集区，未发现显著的地质次生灾害点，推测是因为主震释放了较大应力，诱发了主要地质次生灾害。在多次余震之后，岩体应力状态逐渐趋于平衡，地质构造在震后重组并趋向稳定，从而降低了进一步发生地质次生灾害的风险。
- 积石山地震 /
- 孕灾环境 /
- 滑坡 /
- 泥流 /
- 空间分析
Abstract: Objective The M_S6.2 earthquake that struck Jishishan County, Gansu Province, on December 18, 2023, triggered a series of secondary geological disasters, including landslides, collapses, and debris flows. This earthquake is considered one of the most devastating seismic events in China in recent years. The study aims to analyze the characteristics of seismicity-induced disasters in the region and identify the underlying geological factors contributing to these secondary geological hazards. Specifically, the research focuses on how the geological environment influences the development of these disasters, particularly landslides, collapses, and debris flows. This understanding will help to develop better disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for similar seismic regions. Methods To investigate these issues, the study uses a combination of field investigations, remote sensing image interpretation, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The AHP was employed to evaluate the relative importance of five key factors—faults, lithology, vegetation cover, slope, and precipitation—in the formation of secondary geological hazards. The analysis also includes a detailed spatial distribution study of these factors and how they interact under seismic conditions. This multi-method approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the complex geological environment in Jishishan. Results Based on the integrated analysis, the secondary geological hazard zones of the study area are primarily concentrated along the front edge of Lajishan, closely aligned with the VIII seismic intensity zone of the Jishishan M_S6.2 earthquake. Fewer hazard zones are located at the northern edge of Lijia Village, Guantan Village, and Manisigou Township. The higher-risk areas are centered around Jishishan County, extending eastward toward Lijia Village and Hanji Town. The secondary geological disaster points are concentrated in Jishishan County and the area surrounding it, particularly in valleys where Quaternary strata are abundant, forming a band-like distribution. Landslides are most prevalent in Jishishan County and Dahejia Town, where steep terrain, fragile geological structure, and significant rock weathering make the area vulnerable. The lack of vegetation exacerbates surface instability. Debris flows mainly occur in Baizang Town and around Jishishan, where steep slopes, concentrated rainfall, and abundant loose materials create ideal conditions for disaster. These debris flow sites are located near rivers or lakes, indicating that water flow and increased soil saturation are key factors triggering such events. Landslide sites are generally scattered but concentrated in areas of significant topographic change, following the Quaternary strata in valleys. These sites are denser near the Lajishan fault zone, showing the influence of fault proximity and rainfall on landslide occurrence. Each type of geological disaster exhibits distinct spatial patterns: landslides and debris flows are more likely to occur in areas with steep slopes and proximity to water bodies, while collapses tend to occur in exposed rock areas, influenced by local lithology. Evidently, the distribution of secondary geological hazards in the study area is primarily influenced by weak geological conditions, with seismic activity, vegetation, topography, and precipitation compounding the risk. Hazard zones are concentrated along the front of Lajishan, matching the VIII seismic intensity zone. The disaster sites are primarily located in valleys with dense fourth-level strata, confirming the consistency between the simulated and actual hazard zones. Conclusion To conclude, lithology was found to be the most significant factor influencing disaster formation, with a weight of 42%, followed by fault zones (26%). While precipitation had the least impact, contributing only 6%, it still played a role in increasing the risk of landslides and debris flows. The high-risk disaster areas correspond closely to the seismic intensity zone VIII, particularly around the earthquake epicenter, where the geological conditions are most conducive to these hazards. The distribution of secondary geological disasters in Jishishan is primarily controlled by the weak geological conditions of the region. Besides, compared to the Wenchuan earthquake, where disasters were concentrated along the hanging wall of reverse faults, the disaster sites in Jishishan were mainly located in the down-thrust areas of fault zones. Additionally, fewer disaster points were observed in aftershock zones, suggesting that the main shock alleviated a significant amount of tectonic stress, leading to regional stabilization. [ Significance ] This study highlights the relationship between geological factors and seismicity-induced secondary disasters in Jishishan, emphasizing the need for targeted monitoring and protective measures in areas with loose Quaternary deposits and steep slopes. The results provide valuable insight for disaster prevention strategies in Jishishan and other seismic regions with similar geological conditions.
- Jishishan earthquake /
- disaster-prone environment /
- landslide /
- mudflow /
- spatial analysis

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图 1 区域构造地质图（据陆诗铭等，2024修改）

其中活动断裂相关数据源自郑文俊等，2019与袁道阳等，2004a；地震数据与震源机制解数源自USGS；GPS数据源自Wang, et al.，2020

Figure 1. Regional tectono-geological map (modified after Lu et al., 2024)

The active fault data are from Zhen et al.,2019 and Yuan et al., 2004a. The earthquake data and focal mechanism solutions are from the USGS, and the GPS data are from Wang et al., 2020.

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图 2 拉脊山−积石山地区坡度、坡向统计图

a—拉脊山−积石山地区坡度−坡度频率图；b—拉脊山−积石山地区坡向−坡向频率图

Figure 2. Gradient and slope orientation statistics for the Lajishan-Jishishan area

(a) Gradient frequency in the Lajishan-Jishishan area; (b) Slope direction frequency in the Lajishan-Jishishan area

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图 3 区域地震构造图及余震分布剖面图（据陆诗铭等，2024修改）

其中地震烈度数据源自应急管理部中国地震局（https://www.mem.gov.cn/）；余震数据源自郭祥云等，2024；断层活动强度数据源自吴中海和周春景，2018a—区域地震地质构造图；b—区域地形剖面图及余震分布图

Figure 3. Geotectonic map of the region and aftershock distribution profile (modified after Lu et al.，2024)

(a) Geotectonic map of the region; (b) Topographic section of the region and the distribution of aftershocks. The earthquake intensity data are from https://www.mem.gov.cn/, and the aftershock data are from Guo et al., 2024. The fault activity intensity data are from Wu and Zhou, 2018.

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图 4 土壤类型分布图及土地利用分布图

Figure 4. Distribution of soil types and land use

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图 5 1900—2024年拉脊山及其邻区中—强震震级−时间（M-T）图

Figure 5. Magnitude-Time (M-T) diagram for moderate to strong earthquakes in Lajishan and neighboring areas from 1900 to 2024

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图 6 地质次生灾害点野外调查图

a—积石山县东南侧边坡旁地裂缝；b—中川乡东南侧泥流；c—积石山县东南侧滑坡群；d—大河家镇北侧见崩塌落石

Figure 6. Images of geological hazard sites

(a) Ground cracks in the southeast of Jishishan County; (b) Mudflow in the southeast of Zhongchuan Township; (c) Landslides in the southeast of Jishishan County; (d) Avalanches in the north of Dajiahe Town

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图 7 甘肃积石山地震震后灾害点分布图及数量直方图（灾害点数据来源于甘肃省环境监测院 https://gsigem.gsdkj.net/）

F1-1—拉脊山北缘断裂带西支；F1-2—拉脊山北缘断裂带东支；F1-3—拉脊山北缘断裂带东支反向断层；F2—拉脊山南缘断裂带a—地震次生灾害区域分布图；b—地震次生灾害数量统计图

Figure 7. Distribution of post-earthquake disaster sites and statistical tables for the Jishishan earthquake in Gansu Province (the disaster site data are from the Gansu Provincial Environmental Monitoring Institute; https://gsigem.gsdkj.net/ )

(a) Map of the regional distribution of secondary seismic hazards; (b) Histogram of secondary disasters of earthquakes F1-1: West branch of the Lajishan Fault Zone; F1-2: East branch of the northern margin of the Lajishan Fault Zone; F1-3: Reverse fault of the east branch of the north margin of the Lajishan Fault Zone; F2: South branch of Lajishan Fault Zone

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图 8 甘肃积石山地震震后次生灾害综合评价图（灾害点数据来源于甘肃省环境监测院；https://gsigem.gsdkj.net/）

Figure 8. Comprehensive evaluation of secondary, post-earthquake disasters in Jishishan, Gansu Province (the disaster site data are from the Gansu Provincial Environmental Monitoring Institute; https://gsigem.gsdkj.net/)

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表 1 积石山区域周边5级以上的历史地震表

Table 1. Table of historical earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater in the area around Jishishan

序号	时间	地点	震级	震中烈度	参考文献
1	1371年1月29日	渭源北	5	VI	梁明剑，2008
2	1901年	兰州西固区南	5	VI	梁明剑，2008
3	1944年	乐都南	5	VI	袁道阳等，2005
4	1590年7月	乐都东	5	VI	袁道阳等，2005
5	1821—1850年	循化	5	VI	袁道阳等，2005
6	1878年10月	榆中高崖	5	VI	梁明剑，2008
7	1629年	兰州	5½	VII	梁明剑，2008
8	1875年2月6日—1875年3月7日	西宁	5½	VII	袁道阳等，2005
9	1890年2月17日	西宁东	5½	VII	袁道阳等，2005
10	1893年6月1日	西宁南	5½	VII	袁道阳等，2005
11	1968年12月22日	化隆西	5.4	VI	袁道阳等，2005
12	1819年2月24日	化隆	5¾	VII	袁道阳等，2005
13	1847年7月12日	西宁	5¾	VII	袁道阳等，2005
14	1590年7月7日	永靖东南	6	VIII	袁道阳等，2007
15	公元406年	榆中县菀川	6	VII	袁道阳等，2001
16	1440年11月4日	永登	6¼	VIII	梁明剑，2008
17	1936年	康乐	6¾	IX	张波等，2015
18	公元138年	金城−陇西	6¾	IX	袁道阳等，2004b
19	1125年8月30日	兰州	7	IX	袁道阳等，2002
20	1927年	古浪	8	XI	谢虹等，2014

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表 2 因子选取说明及其数据来源

Table 2. Description of selected factors and their data sources

编号	因子	因子内容	数据说明	来源
1	断裂	距断裂距离	指示断裂运动对周边环境影响，靠近断裂危险性越大，远离断裂危险性越小	陆诗铭等，2024
2	地层岩性	地层岩性分区	将地层划分为全新统、古近系及古近系之前与古生代侵入岩等，全新世地层尚未固结成岩，易受地震等影响发育滑坡、泥流、坍塌等灾害	全国地质资料馆https://www.ngac.cn/125cms/c/qggnew/zxfw.htm
3	植被覆盖	植被覆盖分类	根据土地利用分布图绘制植被覆盖图，植被较多的地方土地稳定性大，较难发生滑坡等地质次生灾害	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所http://www.igsnrr.ac.cn/
4	坡度	地形特点	坡度越大，则坡体易受地震、降水等影响产生滑坡等地质次生灾害	ALOS DEM (30m分辨率)
5	降水	区域月均降水量	考虑区域降水大小对坡体稳定性影响程度	彭守璋，2020

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表 3 1—9度判断矩阵

Table 3. The AHP judgement matrix from 1 to 9

	降水	坡度	植被覆盖	断裂	地层岩性
降水	1.000	0.500	0.333	0.250	0.200
坡度	2.000	1.000	0.500	0.333	0.250
植被覆盖	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.500	0.333
断裂	4.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.500
地层岩性	5.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	1.000

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表 4 因子权重表

Table 4. Factor weights

项	特征向量	权重值	最大特征值	CI值
降水	0.312	6.238%	5.068	0.017
坡度	0.493	9.857%
植被覆盖	0.805	16.105%
断裂	1.309	26.179%
地层岩性	2.081	41.621%

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表 5 随机一致性指标

Table 5. Stochastic consistency indicators

n 阶	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
RI值	0.5200	0.8900	1.1200	1.2600	1.3600	1.4100	1.4600
n 阶	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
RI值	1.4900	1.5200	1.5400	1.5600	1.5800	1.5900	1.5943
n 阶	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
RI值	1.6064	1.6133	1.6207	1.6292	1.6358	1.6403	1.6462
n 阶	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
RI值	1.6497	1.6556	1.6587	1.6631	1.667	1.6693	1.6724

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表 6 CR值计算及一致性检验结果表

Table 6. Calculation of the CR value and result of the consistency test

最大特征根	CI值	RI值	CR值	一致性检验结果
5.068	0.017	1.120	0.015	通过

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表 7 评价指标及其分值表

Table 7. Evaluation indicators and their scores

评价指标	指标分类	原始分值	权重分值	总权重//%
地层	全新统	9	3.78	42
	古近系	2	0.84
	老地层及岩体	1	0.42
断裂	≤5km	9	2.34	26
	5～15km	7	1.82
	15～30km	3	0.78
	≥30km	1	0.26
植被覆盖	未利用土地	9	1.44	16
	居民、工矿等用地	3	0.48
	耕地、草地	2	0.32
	林地	1	0.16
	水域	0	0
坡度	≥40°	9	0.9	10
	30°～40°	7	0.7
	20°～30°	5	0.5
	10°～20°	3	0.3
	＜10°	1	0.1
降水	≥43mm	9	0.54	6
	40～43mm	7	0.42
	37～40mm	5	0.3
	32～37mm	3	0.18
	≤32mm	1	0.06

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