Tectonic stability of the Nanpu sag: Evidence from temporal and spatial characteristics of seismic activity
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摘要: 区域构造稳定性评价在重大工程的规划和建设中发挥着重要的参考作用。目前南堡凹陷作为中国海上储气库的建设地，其构造稳定性成为关注的热点。基于区域历史地震数据，总结了南堡凹陷及周边地震活动的时空分布规律，分析了唐山−河间−磁县断裂带和张家口−蓬莱断裂带的破裂模式，探讨了南堡凹陷地壳的构造稳定性。研究结果表明，南堡凹陷是活动构造带附近相对稳定的“安全岛”。区域上，南堡凹陷周缘积累的应力主要通过滦县−乐亭和宝坻−宁河等断裂带活动得以释放，周缘的地震活动对南堡凹陷内部的影响十分有限；而在南堡凹陷的内部，发育一个以蠕滑为主的大型伸展变形系统。根据现今的构造应力背景，南堡凹陷内的应力仅需要积累很小的量级就会诱发先存正断层的不稳定滑动，这意味着应力无法长期积累。因此，南堡凹陷内部不具备发生大地震的条件。Abstract:
Objective The evaluation of regional tectonic stability plays a crucial role in the planning and construction of major projects. Given that the Nanpu sag is the site for China's first offshore gas storage facility, its tectonic stability is naturally a focal point of concern. Methods Based on historical seismic data for the region, this study summarizes the spatiotemporal distribution of seismic activities in the Nanpu sag and its surrounding areas. It analyzes the rupture modes of the Tangshan−Hejian−Cixian fault zone and the Zhangjiakou−Penglai fault zone, and explores the tectonic stability of the Nanpu sag. Results The results indicate that the Nanpu sag is a relatively stable "safe island" near active tectonic zones. Regionally, stress accumulated around the periphery of the Nanpu sag is mainly released through the activity of faults such as the Luanxian−Laoting and Baodi−Ninghe faults, and the influence of the seismic activity at the periphery on the interior of the Nanpu sag is limited. Internally, a large-scale creep-dominated extensional deformation system has developed within the Nanpu sag. Conclusion Given the current tectonic stress background, only a small magnitude of stress accumulation is required to trigger unstable sliding of pre-existing normal faults within the Nanpu sag. This suggests that stress cannot accumulate over long time scales, and thus the interior of the Nanpu sag lacks conditions for the occurrence of major earthquakes. -
Key words:
- rupture model of fault zone /
- seismic activities /
- tectonic stability /
- Nanpu sag /
- tectonic stress
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图 1 渤海湾盆地（灰色范围）及周缘地区活动构造纲要图
活动构造数据引自邓起东，2007；历史地震数据引自闵子群等（1995）及国家地震科学数据中心
http://data.earthquake.cn Figure 1. Active tectonic map of the Bohai Bay Basin (gray area) and its periphery
The active faults are from Deng, 2007. Historical earthquake data are from Min et al., 1995, National Earthquake Data Center
http://data.earthquake.cn, and The First Monitoring and Application Center, CEA.
图 2 唐山−河间−磁县断裂带和张家口−蓬莱断裂带历史地震时间频率图
a—唐山−河间−磁县断裂带历史地震时间频率图；b—张家口−蓬莱断裂带历史地震时间频率图
Figure 2. Time-frequency chart of historical earthquakes at the Tangshan−Hejian−Cixian and Zhangjiakou−Penglai fault zones
(a) Time-frequency chart of historical earthquakes at the Tangshan−Hejian−Cixian fault zone; (b) Time-frequency chart of historical earthquakes at the Zhangjiakou−Penglai fault zone
图 3 渤海湾盆地及其周缘不同年份地震分布图（图中红色线条为断裂/带）
a—1975—1980年；b—1981—1999年
Figure 3. Distribution of earthquakes in the Bohai Bay Basin and its periphery in different years (the red lines are fault zones)
(a) Earthquakes from 1975 to 1980; (b) Earthquakes from 1981 to 1999
图 4 唐山−河间−磁县断裂带和张家口−蓬莱断裂带相关的震源机制解（Chen and Nábelek，1988；徐杰等，1996；张宏志等，2008；高彬等，2016；林向东等，2017；王想等，2021；Zhang et al.，2022）
Figure 4. Focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes related to the Tangshan−Hejian−Cixian and the Zhangjiakou−Penglai fault zones (data from Chen and Nábelek, 1988; Xu et al., 1996; Zhang et al., 2008; Gao et al., 2016; Lin et al., 2017; Wang et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2022)
图 5 断裂带破裂构造模式图
a—唐山−河间−磁县断裂带破裂构造模式图；b—张家口−蓬莱断裂带破裂构造模式图
Figure 5. Damage models of the fault zones
(a) Damage model of the Tangshan−Hejian−Cixian fault zone; (b) Damage model of the Zhangjiakou−Penglai fault zone
图 6 南堡凹陷历史地震震源深度分布图
Figure 6. Distribution of the hypocenter depth of historical earthquakes in the Nanpu sag
图 7 南堡凹陷内历史地震分布图（地震数据来源与图1相同）
Figure 7. Distribution of historical earthquakes in the Nanpu sag (seismic data from the same source as Fig. 1)
图 8 南堡凹陷底界构造与地震叠合图（图中地震数据来源与图1相同）
a—河街组三段一亚段底界构造与地震（5 km<震源深度≤8 km）叠合图; b—太古界顶面构造与地震（8 km<震源深度<12 km）叠合图
Figure 8. Earthquake hypocenter superimposed on maps of the boundary structures of strata in the Nanpu sag (seismic data from the same source as Fig. 1)
(a) Earthquake hypocenter (5 km < depth ≤ 8 km) superimposed on a map of the lower boundary structures of the first submember of the third member of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation ; (b) Earthquake hypocenter (8 km<depth<12 km) superimposed on a map of the surface boundary structures of the Archean strata
图 9 南堡凹陷地震剖面图（剖面位置见图8a；商琳等，2024）
Figure 9. The seismic profile of the Nanpu sag (Shang et al., 2024), the profile location is shown in Fig. 8a.
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