Development characteristics and risk assessment of geological hazards in the mountainous and hilly areas of western Zhengzhou City
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摘要: 郑州市西部山地丘陵区地质环境条件复杂，崩塌、滑坡及泥石流等地质灾害频发，尤其是2021年“7·20”特大暴雨引发了大量地质灾害。地质灾害危险性评价主要采用单一方法进行，存在评价准确性略低等问题。通过对研究区地质环境背景、地质灾害分布特征的分析研究，选取坡度、地貌、工程地质岩组、高程、距断裂距离、距河流距离、24 小时最大降雨量和人类工程活动强度8个评价因子，采用加权信息量法，对研究区进行地质灾害危险性评价。结果表明：低、中、高危险区面积分别为1387.14 km2、1803.18 km2、1066.47 km2，分别占总面积的32.59%、42.36%、25.05%，地质灾害点的空间分布与地质灾害危险性评价结果基本一致，利用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线检验评价结果合理，研究结论可为郑州市西部山地丘陵区地质灾害防治提供准确的依据。Abstract:
Objective The mountainous and hilly areas of western Zhengzhou City have a complex geological environment, affected by rainfall and human engineering activities. Geological hazards such as collapses, landslides, and debris flows occur frequently. In particular, the “7·20” extreme rainstorm that occurred on July 20, 2021 caused many geological hazards, resulting in heavy casualties and huge economic losses. Therefore, analyzing and summarizing the development characteristics of geological hazards and conducting a risk assessment is necessary for this region. At present, the risk assessment of geological hazards is mainly conducted using a single method that has limitations including slightly low evaluation accuracy. In addition, an overall geological hazard risk assessment has not yet been conducted in the mountainous and hilly areas of western Zhengzhou City. Methods Based on the research and analysis of the geological environment background and the distribution characteristics of geological hazards in the study area, eight evaluation factors were selected: slope, landform, engineering geological rock group, elevation, distance from fault, distance from river, rainfall, and human engineering activities. The weighted information method which incorporates elements of the information quantity model and analytic hierarchy process, was used to evaluate the risk of geological hazards in the study area. Results The low-, medium-, and high-risk areas are 1387.14 km2, 1803.18 km2, and 1066.47 km2, respectively, accounting for 32.59%, 42.36%, and 25.05% of the total area, respectively. The medium- and high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the tectonic erosion medium-low mountains and loess hills in the central part of the four cities, the tectonic erosion medium-low mountains south of Dengfeng, and the loess hilly areas in northern Gongyi and Xingyang. The terrain has steep slopes and deep gullies, and the main stratigraphic lithology is clastic rocks intercalated with carbonate rocks, soft and hard rock layers, and loess. Fault structures are developed, and geological hazards are prone to occur under the action of inducing factors and are highly dangerous. The majority (93.11%) of geological hazards are distributed in medium- and high-risk areas, with hazard point densities of 0.1752 km−2 and 0.2869 km−2, respectively. The spatial distribution of geological hazard points is consistent with the geological hazard risk assessment results. The rationality of the evaluation results was assessed by a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, yielding an AUC value of 0.868. The evaluation accuracy met the requirements for hazard assessment. Conclusion Geological hazards have the largest information value in the range of >40° slopes loess hilly landforms, loess engineering geological rock groups, and 24-h maximum rainfall of 500–550 mm. The risk of geological hazards is positively correlated with distance from faults and water systems — the closer the distance, the higher the risk. The risk of geological disasters in the study area is controlled by the terrain slope and landform and is closely related to the lithology of the formation, which is an important factor in inducing geological disasters. The weighted information method, which has high accuracy and rationality, was used to evaluate the geological hazard risk. Significance The results of this study can provide a basis and technical support for geological hazard prevention and management in the mountainous and hilly areas of western Zhengzhou City and serve as a valuable point of reference for urban planning and infrastructure geological hazard risk assessment in the study area. -
图 1 研究区地质灾害隐患点分布图
Figure 1. Distribution map of geological hazard hidden danger points in the study area
图 2 地质灾害危险性评价影响因子分级图
a—坡度；b—地貌；c—工程地质岩组；d—高程；e—距断裂距离；f—距河流距离；g—24小时最大降雨量；h—人类工程活动强度
Figure 2. Grading map of influencing factors of geological hazard risk assessment
a—slope; b—landform; c—engineering geological rock group; d—elevation; e—distance from fault; f—distance from river; g—24-h maximum rainfall; h— human engineering activity factors
图 3 地质灾害危险性评价层次结构图
Figure 3. Hierarchical structure diagram of geological hazard risk assessment
表 1 研究区地质灾害隐患点统计表
Table 1. Statistical table of geological hazard hidden danger points in the study area
灾害类型 灾害点/处 百分比/% 威胁人数/人 威胁财产/万元 崩塌 502 75.1 25955 79638 滑坡 97 14.5 3790 8117 泥石流 17 2.6 2554 12806 地面塌陷 52 7.8 2895 8964 合计 668 100.0 35194 109525 
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表 2 A-B判断矩阵及权重
Table 2. A-B judgment matrix and weight
A B1 B2 Wi B1 1 5 0.8333 B2 1/5 1 0.1667 λmax=2，CI=0，RI=0，CR=0<0.1
注：Wi—第i个评价因子的权重；λmax—判断矩阵最大特征值；CI—一致性指标；RI—随机一致性指标；CR—一致性比率，若 CR<0.1，则认为判断矩阵通过一致性检验，所求权重值是合理的，下表同。
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表 3 B1-C判断矩阵及权重
Table 3. B1-C judgment matrix and weight
B1 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 Wi C1 1 5 6 3 8 7 0.4651 C2 1/5 1 2 1/2 4 3 0.1305 C3 1/6 1/2 1 1/4 3 2 0.0823 C4 1/3 2 4 1 6 5 0.2324 C5 1/8 1/4 1/3 1/6 1 1/2 0.0361 C6 1/7 1/3 1/2 1/5 2 1 0.0537 λmax=6.1780， CI=0.0356， RI=1.26，CR=0.0283<0.1
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表 4 B2-C判断矩阵及权重
Table 4. B2-C judgment matrix and weight
B2 C7 C8 Wi C7 1 4 0.8 C8 1/4 1 0.2 λmax=2， CI=0， RI=0 ，CR=0<0.1
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表 5 A-C层次总权重排序
Table 5. Ranking of the total weights of layers A-C
A B A-B权重 C B-C权重 A-C权重 地质灾害危险性评价 B1
0.8333C1 0.4651 0.3876 C2 0.1305 0.1087 C3 0.0823 0.0686 C4 0.2324 0.1937 C5 0.0361 0.0301 C6 0.0537 0.0446 B2 0.1667 C7 0.8000 0.1334 C8 0.2000 0.0333 CR=(0.8333×0.0356+0.1667×0)/(0.8333×1.26+0.1667×0)=0.0283<0.1
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表 6 地质灾害危险性评价因子加权信息量表
Table 6. Weighted information scale of geological hazard risk evaluation factors
评价因子 分级 Ni Ni/N Si Si/S 信息量 权重 加权信息量 地形坡度/（°） 0~10 141 0.2111 3026.94 0.7111 −1.2146 0.3876 −0.4708 10~25 428 0.6407 1073.4301 0.2522 0.9325 0.3614 25~40 89 0.1332 146.2915 0.0344 1.3550 0.5252 >40 10 0.0150 10.1339 0.0024 1.8387 0.7127 地貌 冲洪积倾斜平原 21 0.0314 775.0863 0.1821 −1.7565
0.1087−0.1909 黄河河漫滩 2 0.0030 225.2701 0.0529 −2.8722 −0.3122 山间洪积平原 47 0.0704 379.7426 0.0892 −0.2374 −0.0258 河谷阶地 68 0.1018 335.1929 0.0787 0.2568 0.0279 黄土丘陵 319 0.4775 1379.5019 0.3241 0.3877 0.0421 构造剥蚀丘陵 40 0.0599 185.4328 0.0436 0.3182 0.0346 构造侵蚀中低山 171 0.2560 976.5689 0.2294 0.1096 0.0119 高程/m <200 171 0.2560 1317.3781 0.3095 −0.1898 0.0686 −0.0130 200~400 304 0.4551 1752.2913 0.4116 0.1003 0.0069 400~600 154 0.2305 812.9577 0.1910 0.1883 0.0129 600~800 29 0.0434 249.9416 0.0587 −0.3019 −0.0207 800~1000 5 0.0075 91.2935 0.0214 −1.0527 −0.0722 >1000 5 0.0075 32.9333 0.0077 −0.0331 −0.0023 工程地质岩组 一般土 67 0.1003 1099.9754 0.2584 −0.9464 0.1937 −0.1833 碳酸盐岩 87 0.1302 692.5129 0.1627 −0.2224 −0.0431 坚硬−较坚硬岩 68 0.1018 469.6385 0.1103 −0.0805 −0.0156 软弱层状碎屑岩 42 0.0629 329.4227 0.0774 −0.2077 −0.0402 软硬相间变质岩 37 0.0554 216.7597 0.0509 0.0841 0.0163 碎屑岩夹碳酸盐岩 26 0.0389 114.5522 0.0269 0.3690 0.0715 黄土 341 0.5105 1333.9341 0.3134 0.4880 0.0945 距断裂距离/m >2000 402 0.6018 3011.4432 0.7074 −0.1617 0.0301 −0.0049 1000~2000 121 0.1811 583.7909 0.1371 0.2782 0.0084 500~1000 68 0.1018 324.3219 0.0762 0.2898 0.0087 <500 77 0.1153 337.2395 0.0792 0.3750 0.0113 距河流距离/m >800 436 0.6527 3294.3728 0.7739 −0.1703 0.0446 −0.0076 500~800 71 0.1063 332.0601 0.0780 0.3093 0.0138 200~500 80 0.1198 368.1142 0.0865 0.3256 0.0145 <200 81 0.1213 262.2484 0.0616 0.6771 0.0302 24小时最大降雨量/mm 225~300 76 0.1138 893.4056 0.2099 −0.6123 0.1334 −0.0817 300~350 87 0.1302 792.6438 0.1862 −0.3575 −0.0477 350~400 263 0.3937 1435.6581 0.3373 0.1548 0.0207 400~450 125 0.1871 626.8523 0.1473 0.2396 0.0320 450~500 74 0.1108 391.6921 0.0920 0.1856 0.0248 500~550 43 0.0644 116.5436 0.0274 0.8549 0.1140 人类工程活动强度 微弱 129 0.1931 1445.3425 0.3395 −0.5643 0.0333 −0.0188 一般 34 0.0509 252.7182 0.0594 −0.1539 −0.0051 较强 221 0.3308 1230.7963 0.2891 0.1347 0.0045 强烈 284 0.4251 1327.9385 0.3120 0.3096 0.0103
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表 7 地质灾害危险性评价结果统计表
Table 7. Statistical table of geological disaster risk assessment results
危险性分区 灾害点/
个灾点占
比/%面积/
km2面积占
比/%灾点密度/
个/ km2低危险区 46 6.89 1387.14 32.59 0.0332 中危险区 316 47.30 1803.18 42.36 0.1752 高危险区 306 45.81 1066.47 25.05 0.2869
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