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三峡库区溪沟湾滑坡的诱发因素及前期降雨影响

史学磊 韩旭东 杨秀元 孙秀娟 李严严

史学磊, 韩旭东, 杨秀元, 等, 2023. 三峡库区溪沟湾滑坡的诱发因素及前期降雨影响. 地质力学学报, 29 (2): 253-263. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022049
引用本文: 史学磊, 韩旭东, 杨秀元, 等, 2023. 三峡库区溪沟湾滑坡的诱发因素及前期降雨影响. 地质力学学报, 29 (2): 253-263. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022049
SHI Xuelei, HAN Xudong, YANG Xiuyuan, et al., 2023. Factors inducing the Xigouwan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the influence of antecedent precipitation. Journal of Geomechanics, 29 (2): 253-263. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022049
Citation: SHI Xuelei, HAN Xudong, YANG Xiuyuan, et al., 2023. Factors inducing the Xigouwan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the influence of antecedent precipitation. Journal of Geomechanics, 29 (2): 253-263. DOI: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022049

三峡库区溪沟湾滑坡的诱发因素及前期降雨影响

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2022049
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划项目 2019YFC1509702

中国地质调查局地质调查项目 DD20190715

中国地质调查局地质调查项目 DD20221813

详细信息
    作者简介:

    史学磊(1971—),男,本科,助理工程师,主要从事重庆三峡库区地质灾害监测预警研究。E-mail:shixuelei@mail.cgs.gov.cn

    通讯作者:

    韩旭东(1990—),男,博士,高级工程师,主要从事工程地质与灾害研究工作。E-mail:hanxudong@mail.cgs.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642

Factors inducing the Xigouwan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the influence of antecedent precipitation

Funds: 

the National Key Research and Development Program of China 2019YFC1509702

the Public Welfare Project of the China Geological Survey DD20190715

the Public Welfare Project of the China Geological Survey DD20221813

  • 摘要:

    多年来的监测数据表明溪沟湾滑坡加速变形时总伴随着季节性降雨和库水位变动, 难以辨别滑坡变形的主导诱发因素, 对风险分析带来了挑战。鉴于此, 论文首先采用邻域粗糙集模型中的属性约简算法, 对溪沟湾滑坡活跃区和非活跃区日变形速率与降雨、库水位和库水位变动速率因素之间的相关性进行了系统分析, 计算结果表明溪沟湾滑坡活跃区变形主要受过去7日降雨因素影响, 并与短期库水位变化率因素存在关联性, 滑坡非活跃区的微弱变形与过去3日库水位变化率因素存在关联性。然后, 结合滑坡变形特征, 研究发现诱发溪沟湾滑坡活跃区剧烈变形的过去7天平均降雨量在20 mm左右, 库水位下降因素对其变形存在影响, 但影响较小, 而溪沟湾滑坡非活跃区的微弱变形主要受库水位波动影响。最后, 通过对溪沟湾滑坡进行渗流-力学数值计算分析, 结果揭示了溪沟湾滑坡活跃区受长历时前期降雨作用的变形机理。数值分析过程中, 当降雨强度由1 mm/d增至20 mm/d, 降雨造成滑坡体内部孔隙水压逐渐增大, 内部水位抬升并不断向滑坡活跃区延伸, 导致活跃区滑坡体由稳定状态降至欠稳定状态, 进而引发溪沟湾滑坡活跃区变形加剧。此外, 数值模拟结果也表明库水位下降因素对滑坡活跃区内部渗流场影响较小, 对其稳定性影响有限, 而库水位变动对滑坡非活跃区内部渗流场影响较大, 说明滑坡非活跃区的微弱变形主要受库水位波动影响。论文针对溪沟湾滑坡变形诱发因素的综合分析结果, 有助于对该滑坡进行风险预警, 可将过去7日平均降雨量20 mm作为诱发溪沟湾滑坡活跃区剧烈变形预警阀值之一。

     

  • 图  1  溪沟湾滑坡概况

    a—滑坡位置与区域地形地貌;b—高库水位时滑坡前端淹没状态;c—低库水位时滑坡前端淹没状态

    Figure  1.  The overview map of the Xigouwan landslide

    (a) Landslide location and regional topography; (b) landslide front submerged state at high reservoir level; (c) landslide front submerged state at low reservoir level

    图  2  溪沟湾滑坡地质剖面及变形情况

    Figure  2.  Geological profile and deformation of the Xigouwan landslide

    图  3  溪沟湾滑坡体地表位移曲线

    Figure  3.  Surface displacement curve of the Xigouwan landslide body

    图  4  溪沟湾滑坡体日变形速率数据统计结果

    Figure  4.  Statistical results of daily deformation rate of the Xigouwan landslide

    图  5  滑坡活跃区变形对相关因子的依赖度计算结果

    Figure  5.  The dependence values of the landslide body deformation on the correlation factors in the active area

    图  6  滑坡非活跃区变形对相关因子的依赖度计算结果

    Figure  6.  The dependence values of the landslide body deformation on the correlation factors in the inactive area

    图  7  滑坡各区域变形对过去3日库水位上升和下降速率的依赖度计算结果

    Figure  7.  The dependence of the landslide deformation on the rising and falling rates of the reservoir level in the past three days in each area

    图  8  滑坡变形活跃区变形与库水位变动及降雨关系

    Figure  8.  The relationship between the landslide deformation in the active area and reservoir level fluctuation and rainfall

    图  9  滑坡变形非活跃区变形与库水位变动关系

    Figure  9.  The relationship between the landslide deformation in the inactive area and reservoir level fluctuation

    图  10  前期降雨引发的溪沟湾滑体内部渗流场状况

    a—前期降雨强度为1 mm/d时;b—前期降雨强度为12 mm/d时;c—前期降雨强度为20 mm/d时

    Figure  10.  Seepage feilds in the Xigouwan landslide body caused by antecedent rainfall

    (a) Antecedent rainfall intensity at 1 mm/d; (b) Antecedent rainfall intensity at 12 mm/d; (c) Antecedent rainfall intensity at 20 mm/d

    图  11  不同水压力状况下滑坡活跃区滑体稳定性系数

    Figure  11.  Stability coefficient of the landslide body in the active area under different water pressure

    图  12  库水位下降引发的溪沟湾滑体内部渗流场状况

    a—前期降雨强度为1 mm/d时;b—前期降雨强度为12 mm/d时;c—前期降雨强度为20 mm/d时

    Figure  12.  Seepage field in the Xigouwan landslide body caused by the drawdown of the reservoir level

    (a) Antecedent rainfall intensity at 1 mm/d; (b) Antecedent rainfall intensity at 12 mm/d; (c) Antecedent rainfall intensity at 20 mm/d

    表  1  溪沟湾滑坡形变信息系统属性指标

    Table  1.   Attribute index of the information system for the Xigouwan landslide deformation

      条件属性C
    指标 描述 指标 描述
    a1 当日降雨量 a9 过去15日平均库水位
    a2 过去3日平均降雨量 a10 过去30日平均库水位
    a3 过去7日平均降雨量 a11 当日库水位变动率
    a4 过去15日平均降雨量 a12 过去3日平均库水位变动率
    a5 过去30日平均降雨量 a13 过去7日平均库水位变动率
    a6 当日库水位 a14 过去15日平均库水位变动率
    a7 过去3日平均库水位 a15 过去30日平均库水位变动率
    a8 过去7日平均库水位
      决策属性D
    a16 J2监测点位日位移速率 a17 J3监测点位日位移速率
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  溪沟湾滑坡体物质物理力学参数

    Table  2.   Physical and mechanical parameters of the Xigouwan landslide body

    部位 容重/(KN/m3) 黏聚力/kPa 摩擦角/(°) 渗透系数/(m/d) 孔隙比
    滑体 21 13 33 2.16 1.22
    滑带 18 18 16 0.1 0.67
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-04-24
  • 修回日期:  2022-10-10
  • 录用日期:  2022-11-07
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