Risk assessment of slope disasters induced by typhoon-rainfall in the southeast coastal area, China: A case study of the Shiyang north slope
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摘要: 在东南沿海地区每年汛期由台风暴雨诱发的坡积层滑坡灾害事故众多，给当地人民生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。斜坡单体风险评价是地质灾害治理与防控的重点、难点。在野外调查、工程地质钻探及岩土体力学测试的基础上，以仕阳镇仕阳北坡为例，结合气象资料分析了不同降雨条件下斜坡的稳定性；采用蒙特卡洛方法计算了斜坡安全系数的统计特性；基于斜坡破坏概率研究了承灾体的易损性，并定量计算了不同降雨条件下建筑物及人员的风险值。结果表明：随着降雨强度的增加，滑坡发生概率随之增加，其风险值也逐渐增加，特大暴雨工况风险最大，其人员风险为94人/年，经济风险为1.41亿元/年。研究结果对东南沿海地区该类滑坡的防治工程有重要的参考意义，可为该类滑坡的防灾减灾决策提供建议。Abstract: In the southeast coastal areas of China, typhoon-rainfall-induced landslide disasters occur frequently during the flood season each year, which poses a great threat to local people's lives and property. The risk assessment of individual slopes is of great importance for geologic disaster management and prevention. We carried out field surveys, engineering geological drilling, and soil mechanics tests on the north slope of Shiyang Town. The slope stability was discussed in combination with the meteorological data under different rainfall conditions. By using the Monte Carlo method the statistical characteristics of the slope safety factor were calculated. Based on the slope failure probability, the vulnerability of the hazard-bearing body was analyzed, and the risk values for buildings and people under different rainfall conditions were quantitatively calculated. The results show that with the increase in rainfall intensity, the probability of landslide increases, and its risk value increases as well. The risk under extremely heavy rain is the highest, with 94 people per year, and the economic risk is 141 million yuan per year. The research results are a useful guideline for the prevention and control of this type of landslide in the southeast coastal area.
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Key words:
- slope /
- risk assessment /
- vulnerability /
- stability /
- typhoon-rainfall
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图 1 仕阳北坡平面及剖面图
a—仕阳北坡平面图；b—A-A’剖面图；c—B-B’剖面图
Figure 1. The plan and sectional view of the Shiyang north slope
(a) Plan of the Shiyang north slope; (b) Section A-A'; (c) Section B-B'
图 2 2016—2019年仕阳镇月降水量
Figure 2. Monthly precipitation in Shiyang Town from 2016 to 2019
图 3 数值计算模型
a—A-A’剖面计算模型；b—B-B’剖面计算模型
Figure 3. Numerical calculation model
(a) Calculation model of the A-A'section; (b) Calculation model of the B-B'section
图 4 不同雨强条件下不同时刻A-A’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图
孔隙水压力数值区间m~n表示大于m，小于等于n
a—c—大雨工况下A-A’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图；d—f—暴雨工况下A-A’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图；g—i—大暴雨工况下A-A’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图；j—l—特大暴雨工况下A-A’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图Figure 4. Cloud diagram of pore water pressure inside the slope of the A-A'section at different time under different rain intensities
(a-c) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of the A-A'section under heavy rain conditions; (d-f) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of the A-A'section under torrential rain conditions; (g-i) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of the A-A'section under downpour conditions; (j-l) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of the A-A'section under heavy downpour conditions
图 5 不同雨强条件下不同时刻B-B’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图
孔隙水压力数值区间m~n表示大于m，小于n
a—c—大雨工况下B-B’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图；d—f—暴雨工况下B-B’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图；g—i—大暴雨工况下B-B’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图；j—l—特大暴雨工况下B-B’剖面斜坡内部孔隙水压力云图Figure 5. Cloud diagram of pore water pressure inside the slope of B-B'section at different times under different rain intensities
(a-c) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of B-B'profile under heavy rain conditions; (d-f) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of B-B'profile under torrential rain conditions; (g-i) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of B-B'section under downpour conditions; (j-l) Cloud map of pore water pressure inside the slope of B-B'section under heavy downpour conditions
图 6 A-A’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数
孔隙水压力数值区间m~n表示大于m，小于n
a—大雨工况下A-A’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数；b—暴雨工况下A-A’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数；c—大暴雨工况下A-A’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数；d—特大暴雨工况下A-A’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数Figure 6. Potential slip surface and safety factor of the A-A'section
(a) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the A-A'section under heavy rain conditions; (b) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the A-A'section under torrential rain conditions; (c) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the A-A'section under downpour conditions; (d) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the A-A'section under heavy downpour conditions
图 7 B-B’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数
孔隙水压力数值区间m~n表示大于m，小于n
a—大雨工况下B-B’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数；b—暴雨工况下B-B’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数；c—大暴雨工况下B-B’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数；d—特大暴雨工况下B-B’剖面潜在滑移面及安全系数Figure 7. Potential slip surface and safety factor of the B-B'section
(a) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the B-B'section under heavy rain conditions; (b) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the B-B'section under torrential conditions; (c) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the B-B'section under downpour conditions; (d) Potential slip surface and safety factor of the B-B'section under heavy downpour conditions
图 8 仕阳北坡滑坡影响范围分区
Figure 8. Zoning of the affected areas by the Shiyang north slope landslide
图 10 仕阳北坡室内人员风险
人员风险数值区间m~n表示大于m，小于等于n
a—大雨工况下室内人员风险；b—暴雨工况下室内人员风险；c—大暴雨工况下室内人员风险；d—特大暴雨工况下室内人员风险Figure 10. Risk of the Shiyang north slope under rain conditions to the people inside a house
(a) Under heavy rain conditions; (b) Under torrential rain conditions; (c) Under downpour conditions; (d) Under heavy downpour conditions
图 11 仕阳北坡经济风险
注：经济风险数值区间m~n表示大于m，小于n
a—大雨工况下经济风险；b—暴雨工况下经济风险；c—大暴雨工况下经济风险；d—特大暴雨工况下经济风险Figure 11. Economic risk of the Shiyang north slope under rain conditions
(a) Under heavy rain conditions; (b) Under torrential rain conditions; (c) Under downpour conditions; (d) Under heavy downpour conditions
表 1 2016—2019年各类降雨级别天数统计表
Table 1. Statistics of the days of different rainfall levels from 2016 to 2019
降雨级别 天数/d 各降雨级别出现概率/% 小雨(≤10 mm/d) 406 27.79 中雨(10~25 mm/d) 129 8.83 大雨(25~50 mm/d) 58 3.97 暴雨(50~100 mm/d) 18 1.23 大暴雨(100~250 mm/d) 4 0.27 特大暴雨(>250 mm/d) 1 0.07 注：表中数值m~n表示大于m, 小于等于n 
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表 2 数值计算工况
Table 2. Numerical calculation conditions
剖面 计算工况 A-A’剖面 工况1：自重+大雨 工况2：自重+暴雨 工况3：自重+大暴雨 工况4：自重+特大暴雨 B-B’剖面 工况5：自重+大雨 工况6：自重+暴雨 工况7：自重+大暴雨 工况8：自重+特大暴雨
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表 3 岩土体物理力学参数
Table 3. Physical and mechanical parameters of the rock and soil
材料 饱和体积含水率/% 天然密度/(g·cm-3) 粘聚力/kPa 内摩擦角/(°) 饱和渗透系数/(10-6 m/s) 残坡积层洪积层 34.0 1.73 17.0 16.3 4.0 全风化凝灰岩 36.0 1.91 16.0 25.3 4.4 强风化凝灰岩 34.0 2.06 19.5 26.0 2.0 中风化凝灰岩 30.0 2.20 250.0 45.0 0.2 强风化凝灰质细砂岩 35.4 1.80 17.0 24.0 4.1 中风化凝灰质细砂岩 33.6 2.30 20.0 25.8 1.9
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表 4 不同工况下斜坡安全系数与破坏概率
Table 4. Slope safety factor and failure probability under different working conditions
工况1 工况2 工况3 工况4 工况5 工况6 工况7 工况8 安全系数 1.122 1.093 0.999 0.997 1.133 1.061 1.006 1.002 破坏概率 5.04% 9.80% 48.90% 50.32% 11.84% 27.32% 46.40% 48.02%
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表 5 不同区域滑坡到达角及概率
Table 5. Angle and probability of landslide arrival in different regions
滑坡到达角/(°) P(T∶L) Ⅰ区、Ⅳ区 27~33 0.88 Ⅱ区、Ⅴ区 20~27 0.52 Ⅲ区、Ⅵ区 18~20 0.05
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