Hazard assessment of debris flows in Kongpo Gyamda, Tibet based on FLO-2D numerical simulation
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摘要: 工布江达县位于藏东地区，雨季区内泥石流频发，对人民基本生活和区域经济建设与发展造成了严重影响。为研究藏东地区中—小型泥石流灾害对城镇居民聚集区的危害特征和潜在危险性，运用FLO-2D软件，以西藏自治区工布江达县县城周边居民分布较为集中的5条泥石流沟为研究对象，通过模拟泥石流泥深和流速等方面的冲淤特征，以县城典型泥石流沟模拟冲出结果为基础，确定泥石流强度并划定危险性分区，分析泥石流危险分区与居民聚集区之间的拓扑关系，评估县城周边泥石流危险性，为工布江达县城的城镇规划和防灾减灾提供技术参考。Abstract: Kongpo Gyamda is located in eastern Tibet, where debris flows occur frequently in the rainy season, which has a serious impact on local people's daily life and hinders regional economic construction and development. In order to study the hazard characteristics of small to medium-sized debris flow in eastern Tibet and potential dangers to urban residential areas, the FLO-2D software was used to study five debris flow gullies with relatively concentrated residents around Kongpo Gyamda. The scouring and silting characteristics of debris flows were simulated. Based on the simulation results in terms of depth and velocity, the intensity and hazard zoning of debris flows were determined. By analyzing the topological relationship between the debris flow danger zone and the residential area, the debris flow risk around the county was evaluated. It provides technical reference for the town planning, and disaster prevention and mitigation in Kongpo Gyamda.
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Key words:
- risk assessment /
- debris flow /
- FLO-2D /
- numerical simulation /
- Kongpo Gyamda
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图 1 工布江达县城地理位置图
a-林芝市位置图；b-工布江达县城位置图；c-研究区地形图
Figure 1. Location of Kongpo Gyamda
(a) Location map of Nyingchi; (b) Location map of Kongpo Gyamda; (c) Topographic map of the study area
图 3 工布江达县城泥石流沟平面图
a-结底岗沟和地村沟；b-各娘朗沟；c-折西折凤普沟；d-卡热普沟；e-泥石流沟分布图
Figure 3. Plan view of the debris flow gullies in Kongpo Gyamda
(a) Jiedigang debris flow gully and Dicun debris flow gully; (b) Genianglang debris flow gully; (c) Zhexizhefengpu debris flow gully; (d) Karepu debris flow gully; (e) Distribution map of debris flow gullies
图 4 泥石流大型潜在松散物源位置图
Figure 4. Location map of the large potential loose material sources of debris flow
图 5 工布江达县城泥石流沟不同频率下流量过程曲线
Figure 5. The flow-process curves of the debris flow gullies in Kongpo Gyamda under different frequencies
(a) Dicun debris flow gully; (b) Jiedigang debris flow gully; (c) Genianglang debris flow gully; (d) Zhexizhefengpu debris flow gully; (e) Karepu debris flow gully
图 6 20年一遇的暴雨条件下模拟结果
Figure 6. Simulation results under the heaviest rain conditions in recent 20 years
(a) Velocity; (b) Depth
图 7 工布江达县城泥石流危险性评定标准
Figure 7. The risk assessment standard for the debris flows in Kongpo Gyamda
图 9 地村沟堆积扇人口聚集区灾害发生前后对比图
Figure 9. Comparison of before and after the disaster in the densely populated area of the Dicun accumulation fan
(a) Before the disaster; (b) After the disaster
图 10 结底岗沟堆积扇人口聚集区灾害发生前后对比图
Figure 10. Comparison of before and after the disaster in the densely populated area of the Jiedigang accumulation fan
(a) Before the disaster; (b) After the disaster
图 11 折西折凤普沟堆积扇人口聚集区灾害发生前后对比图
Figure 11. Comparison of before and after the disaster in the densely populated area of Zhexizhefengpu accumulation fan
(a) Before the disaster; (b) After the disaster
表 1 泥石流沟特征值参数
Table 1. Characteristic parameters of the five debris flow gullies
泥石流沟名 流域面积/km2 主沟长度/km 主沟平均坡降/‰ 高程差/m 潜在松散物源量/×104 m3 地村沟 2.71 3.30 102 979 80 结底岗沟 6.66 5.46 282 1690 110 各娘朗沟 53.90 15.80 102 1558 300 折西折凤普沟 33.59 11.80 223 1970 300 卡热普沟 11.20 7.00 219 1622 60 
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表 2 数值模拟涉及数据说明
Table 2. Data description of the numerical simulation
数据类型 数据说明 DEM 12.5 m分辨率ALOS数值高程模型数据 遥感影像 1 m分辨率Google Earth遥感影像 地质资料 林芝县幅1∶25万区域地质图 泥石流数据 西藏自治区工布江达县1∶5万地质灾害详细调查数据库 降雨数据 工布江达县气象局1990~2019年降雨数据 泥石流沟暴发记录 野外实地调查、访问
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表 3 工布江达县城泥石流基础参数拟定
Table 3. Basic parameters of the five debris flow gullies in Kongpo Gyamda
泥石流沟名 易发性量化评分 重度/(t/m3) 泥沙修正系数 体积浓度/% 流域曼宁系数 泥石流历时/min 地村沟 80 1.551 0.516 34 0.10 16 结底岗沟 93 1.641 0.650 39 0.20 20 各娘朗沟 86 1.593 0.565 38 0.15 34 折西折凤普沟 93 1.641 0.650 39 0.06 30 卡热普沟 81 1.558 0.524 37 0.22 24
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表 4 工布江达县城泥石流基础参数取值
Table 4. Values of basic parameters of debris flows in Kongpo Gyamda
参数 屈服应力/MPa 粘滞系数 层流阻力系数K α1 β1 α2 β2 数值 0.811 13.72 0.00462 11.24 2280
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表 5 模拟结果与实际情况对比表
Table 5. Comparison between simulation results and actual conditions
泥石流沟名 堆积范围/×104 m2 冲出方量/×104 m3 模拟值 调查值 误差率/% 模拟值 调查值 误差率/% 地村沟 8.32 9.27 -10.2 2.04 2.41 -15.35 结底岗沟 7.88 7.23 9.0 1.43 1.21 18.2 各娘朗沟 21.52 26.66 -19.3 18.08 19.78 -8.6 折西折凤普沟 23.37 24.43 -4.3 7.83 8.09 -3.2 卡热普沟 0.95 2.15 -55.8 0.59 1.83 -67.8
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表 6 不同频率下的泥石流模拟结果表
Table 6. Table of simulation results of the debris flow gullies at different frequencies
泥石流沟名 地村沟 结底岗沟 各娘朗沟 折西折凤普沟 卡热普沟 暴发频率/a 10 50 100 10 50 100 10 50 100 10 50 100 10 50 100 平均流速/(m/s) 1.02 1.21 1.27 0.74 0.90 0.92 1.25 1.71 1.78 1.34 1.57 1.67 0.56 1.15 1.17 平均堆积深度/m 0.20 0.28 0.30 0.16 0.19 0.32 0.65 1.06 1.15 0.30 0.40 0.42 0.36 0.54 0.67 堆积扇面积/×104 m2 7.97 11.50 12.99 3.84 14.26 16.89 4.27 6.58 7.62 11.37 37.53 43.05 0.16 3.23 4.19 冲出方量/×104 m3 1.59 3.22 3.90 0.61 2.78 5.40 2.78 6.97 8.76 3.87 15.01 18.08 0.06 1.74 2.81
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表 7 泥石流强度划分表
Table 7. Table of debris flow intensity
泥石流强度 泥深/m 关系式 泥深与流速乘积/(m2/s) 高 h≥1 OR vh≥1 0.5≤h＜1 AND 0.5≤vh＜1 中 0≤h＜0.5 AND 0.5≤h＜1 0.5≤h＜1 AND 0≤h＜0.5 低 0≤h＜0.5 AND 0≤vh＜0.5
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表 8 不同降雨频率下泥石流堆积区危险性分区统计表
Table 8. Risk zoning table of debris flow accumulation areas under different rainfall frequencies
泥石流沟名 高危险区面积/×104 m2 占比/% 中危险区面积/×104 m2 占比/% 低危险区面积/×104 m2 占比/% 地村沟 2.28 17.48 2.53 19.40 8.23 63.11 结底岗沟 0.96 5.79 1.80 10.86 13.81 83.34 各娘朗沟 5.15 67.59 0.96 12.60 1.51 19.82 折西折凤普沟 13.32 33.14 10.20 25.38 16.67 41.48 卡热普沟 1.83 42.66 0.62 14.45 1.84 42.89
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表 9 人口聚集区受影响面积占比
Table 9. Proportion of the affected areas in densely populated area
泥石流沟名 人口聚集区 总面积/×104 m2 受影响区域 无影响区域/% 高危险性占比/% 中危险性占比/% 低危险性占比/% 地村沟 1.34 80.6 18.7 0.7 0 结底岗沟 21.15 0.5 2.8 30.4 66.3 折西折凤普沟 3.70 18.4 14.1 30.2 37.3
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