Temporal and spatial characteristics of landslide susceptibility in the West open-pit mining area, Fushun, China
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摘要: 近年抚顺西露天矿矿区滑坡在规模、活动频率以及空间发育位置等方面均与矿区历史滑坡呈现出较明显的时空差异性，为矿区未来治理提出新的挑战。故基于改进频率比模型，选择人类工程活动（主要是采矿工程扰动）和工程地质条件两类致灾因素，对由矿区滑坡时空差异所导致的易发性变化进行研究。结果表明：影响矿区滑坡灾害的主要因素包括坡体结构、工程岩组和水文地质条件；矿区滑坡易发性较2010年前有所降低，高易发区和较高易发区面积共减少1.294 km2，但北帮中区等地段仍呈高易发态势；滑坡易发区的空间位置与2010年前后对比发生了较大变化，矿坑西北帮滑坡易发性大幅降低，东部环矿区境界50~500 m处滑坡易发性轻微降低，北帮中段与南帮中、西段顶部滑坡易发性增加，其中北帮中段为目前最易发的区段。研究结果可为矿区闭坑停采后边坡整治及后续规划利用提供参考依据。Abstract: In recent years landslides occurred in the Fushun West open-pit mining area compared with previous ones show obvious temporal and spatial variations in the scale, activity frequency and spatial position, followed up by changes in landslide susceptibility, which presents new challenges for future treatment. We compared susceptibility changes caused by the temporal and spatial differences using the Improved Frequency Ratio model on the selected two types of hazard-triggering factors, including human engineering activities (mainly mining engineering disturbances) and engineering geological conditions. And the results pointed to slope structure, engineering rock group and hydrogeological conditions as the influencing factors. Compared with how it was in 2010, current landslide susceptibility has decreased, and the extremely high-high prone areas have decreased by 1.294 km2 in size; however, there is still a high incidence trend in the middle area of the north side. And the spatial location of the currently high landslide-prone areas has undergone major changes. The landslide susceptibility in the northwest side of the mine shows a sharp decline, and it has also reduced slightly at 50~500 m away from the eastern boundary of the mining area, while it has increased in the middle section of the north slope, and the top of the middle and west section of the south slope. Especially, the middle section of the north slope is the most landslide-prone area. The research results provide reference basis for slope treatment and follow-up planning after mining closure.
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图 1 西露天矿区孕灾地质背景
Figure 1. Disaster-bearing geological background of the West open-pit mining area. (a) Structural distribution. (b) Geological conditions.
图 2 矿区滑坡分布变化
Figure 2. Distribution changes of landslides in the mining area. (a) Changes of pit topography and spatial distribution of landslides. (b) Diagram showing landslides occurred over time in the mining district.
图 3 矿区滑坡易发性评价因子
F1、F1A—浑河断裂主断层；F1-1—浑河断裂一号分支断层；F1-2—浑河断裂二号分支断层；F1-3—浑河断裂三号分支断层
Figure 3. Factors in landslide susceptibility evaluation in the influence zone of open pit mining in the mining area. (a) Topography. (b) Structure-influenced zone. (c) Slope structure (modified after Shen et al., 1999; Li et al., 2010; Cui, 2018; Gao et al., 2020). (d) Underground water depth. (e) Engineering rock group. (f) Open-pit mining influenced zone. (g) Underground mining influenced zone.
F1, F1A-Main fault of the Hunhe Fault; F1-1-No.1 brunch fault of the Hunhe Fault; F1-2-No.2 brunch fault of the Hunhe Fault; F1-3-No.3 brunch fault of the Hunhe Fault.
图 4 矿区滑坡易发性变化对比
Figure 4. Changes of landslide susceptibility in the mining area. (a) Landslide susceptibility zoning prior to 2010. (b) Landslide susceptibility zoning after 2010. (c) Change of landslide susceptibility. (d) Numerical model. (e) Contour map of deformation rate under natural conditions. (f) Contour map of displacement in the north side under natural conditions.
表 1 坡形划分依据
Table 1. Basis for slope shape classification
坡形 坡度/(°) 坡高/m 坡形值范围 低缓坡 0~15 0~30 0~8.038 过渡坡 15~25 30~100 8.038~46.63 高陡坡 >25 >100 >46.63 
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表 2 矿坑及邻区岩体强度
Table 2. Rock mass strength of the mine pit and adjacent area
岩性 弹性模量/GPa 泊松比 内摩擦角/(°) 粘聚力/MPa 砂砾岩 5.5 0.25 32 2.5 泥页岩 1.2 0.28 28 0.3 油母页岩 1.2 0.28 35 0.95 煤 1.2 0.28 33 1.0 凝灰岩 10.5 0.25 39 2.5 玄武岩 25 0.23 48 4.0 花岗片麻岩 35 0.22 52 6.0
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表 3 不同期次致灾因子各类别的改进频率比
Table 3. Improved Frequency Ratio of disaster-triggering factors in different periods
致灾因子 2010年前频率比 排序 2010年后频率比 排序 地形地貌 高陡坡 1.038 8 0.986 9 低陡/高缓坡 0.242 20 0.745 12 低缓坡 2.029 5 0.533 19 地质构造 距构造 < 50 m 0.691 12 1.052 8 距构造50~100 m 0.724 11 0.572 17 距构造100~200 m 0.451 16 0.614 16 坡体结构 平地 0 24 0 24 顺向坡 4.079 2 7.442 1 斜切坡 0 24 0 24 反向坡 0.003 23 0.022 22 复褶皱坡 0.926 9 6.748 2 主向斜坡 5.657 1 0.007 23 工程岩组 软岩组 0.547 15 1.297 5 较硬岩组 0.874 10 0.735 13 硬岩组 0.550 13 2.607 3 水文地质 地下水溢出 2.176 4 1.151 7 地下水埋深0~15 m 1.566 6 0.647 15 地下水埋深15~45 m 0.550 14 0.508 20 地下水埋深 > 45 m 0.030 21 1.281 6 井工开采 距采空区 < 50 m 0.244 19 0.369 21 距采空区50~100 m 0.449 17 0.961 10 距采空区100~200 m 0.437 18 1.395 4 露天开采 距矿坑边界 < 50 m 0.004 22 0.901 11 距矿坑边界50~200 m 1.378 7 0.651 14 距矿坑边界200~500 m 2.818 3 0.568 18
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表 4 2010年前后矿区滑坡易发性对比
Table 4. Comparison of landslide susceptibility in the mining area around 2010
区段 2010年前 2010年后 面积/km2 占比/% 面积/km2 占比/% 高易发 3.664 34.25 2.768 25.87 矿区西北帮全区及南帮中部 矿区北帮中段上部及南帮中西部上段 较高易发 4.042 37.78 3.644 34.06 东帮中段，矿坑南帮顶底部及北帮中、东段中部 矿区中段及南帮东段 较低易发 1.783 16.66 0.124 1.16 北帮中东段较高易发区周围及矿坑西端工业用地 矿区东段坑底运输区及东端零星分布 低易发 1.211 11.32 4.164 38.91 矿区东段及矿坑底部东运输段 矿区北帮东西段及东西帮端
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