SIGNIFICANCE AND ROLE OF IN-SITU CRUSTAL STRESS MEASURING AND REAL-TIME MONITORING IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH
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摘要: 当2013年4月20日四川芦山Ms 7.0级大地震发生时，中国科学家已不再像2008年汶川Ms 8.0大地震发生时那样茫然和不知所措。其根本原因在于，2008年汶川大地震发生后，龙门山地区开展了大量的科学研究工作，已超前初步认知龙门山断裂带西南端具有潜在地震危险性，特别是原位地应力测量和实时监测已发现绝对地应力大小高值异常和相对地应力大小临震异常变化。论文简要介绍了地震预报国际主流观点与认识，梳理了地应力在地震预报研究中的作用和认识，探讨了2004 Parkfield earthquake钻孔应变监测结果给予的启示，详细介绍了原位地应力测量与实时监测在地震预报研究中应用的实践与探索。实践证明：地震预报是值得探索和研究的，原位地应力测量与实时监测是地震预报的有效方法之一。
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关键词:
- 原位地应力测量与实时监测 /
- 地震预报 /
- 北京平谷地应力实时监测台站 /
- 四川宝兴地应力实时监测台站
Abstract: When the Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred on April 20, 2013, Chinese scientists were not surprised and at a loss what to do as the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake happened in 2008. The main reason is that a lot of scientific research works have been carried out along the Longmenshan fracture zone after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake, and the potential seismic risks have been primarily pre-found at the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fracture zone, especially, absolute big crustal stress magnitude abnormality from in-situ crustal stress measuring and relative crustal stress short-term precursory abnormal variation from in-situ crustal stress monitoring have been discovered. This paper first briefly introduces the international main views and knowledge on earthquake prediction. Then the inspiration from the bore-hole strain monitoring result of 2004 Parkfield earthquake is discussed. The role and knowledge of crustal stress on earthquake prediction are also summarized. At last, the practice and exploration of in-situ crustal stress measuring and real-time monitoring in earthquake prediction are presented in detail. From the practice and facts, we think that earthquake prediction should be explored and studied, and in-situ crustal stress measuring and real-time monitoring is one of the effective ways for earthquake prediction. -
图 1 北京平谷地应力实时监测台站位置
Figure 1. The sketch map showing the site of the crustal stress real-time monitoring station at Pinggu District in Beijing, China
图 2 北京平谷地应力实时监测台站记录的2011年3月11日日本Ms 9.0级大地震及Ms≥6.0级地震诱发的地应力大小相对变化
Figure 2. Crustal stress magnitude relative variation triggered by the Tohoku-Oki, Japan, Ms 9.0 earthquake on March 11, 2011 and its Ms≥6.0 fore- and after-earthquakes at the crustal stress real-time monitoring station at Pinggu District in Beijing, China
图 3 北京平谷地应力实时监测台站记录的2011年3月11日日本Ms 9.0级大地震及Ms≥6.0级地震诱发的地下水位相对变化
Figure 3. Underground water level relative variation triggered by the Tohoku-Oki, Japan, Ms 9.0 earthquake on March 11, 2011 and its Ms≥6.0 fore- and after-earthquakes at the crustal stress real-time monitoring station at Pinggu District in Beijing, China
图 4 北京平谷地应力实时监测台站记录的2011年3月9日—14日地应力大小相对变化及Ms≥6.0级地震
Figure 4. Crustal stress magnitude relative variation on the hour and Ms≥6.0 earthquakes from March 9 to 14, 2011
图 5 北京平谷地应力实时监测台站记录的2011年3月9日—14日地下水位相对变化及Ms≥6.0级地震
Figure 5. Underground water level relative variation on the hour and Ms≥6.0 earthquakes from March 9 to 14, 2011
图 6 龙门山断裂带地应力实时监测台站分布
Figure 6. The distribution of the crustal stress real-time monitoring stations along the Longmenshan fracture belt
图 7 四川宝兴地应力实时监测台站2013年3月1日以来地应力大小相对变化曲线及Ms≥4.0级地震
Figure 7. Crustal stress magnitude relative variation and Ms≥4.0 earthquakes since March 1, 2013 at Baoxing crustal stress real-time monitoring station, Sichuan Province
表 1 昆仑山Ms 8.1大地震前后压磁应力解除地应力测量结果
Table 1. In-situ crustal stress measurements by piezomagnetic stress overcoring method before and after Kunlunshan Ms 8.1 earthquake
测点编号 岩性 测量深度/
m最大水平主
应力/MPa最小水平主
应力/MPa最大水平
主应力方向备注 1 花岗岩 18 12.9 12.1 N45°E 2001年8月，震前 1* 花岗岩 18 3.5 3.2 N66°E 2002年7月，震后 2 辉长岩 14 6.8 4.4 N58°E 2001年9月，震前 2* 辉长岩 14 2.2 1.2 N5°W 2002年7月，震后 
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表 2 汶川Ms 8.0大地震前后水压致裂地应力测量结果
Table 2. In-situ crustal stress measurements by hydrofracturing method before and after Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake
测点
编号测量深度/
m最大水平主
应力/MPa最小水平
主应力/MPa测量日期 位于发震断裂
构造位置390.60～391.40 21.11 12.83 上盘 ZK1 408.80～409.60 21.78 13.01 2008年5月4～7日，震前 417.60～418.40 21.87 13.60 390.60～391.40 15.73 10.33 ZK1* 408.80～409.60 15.91 10.01 2008年6月26～29日，震后 417.60～418.40 16.00 10.10 ZK3 358.90～359.70 10.02 7.52 2008年5月1～4日，震前 下盘 406.12～406.92 11.98 8.48 ZK3* 358.90～359.70 10.42 7.32 2008年7月2～5日，震后 406.12～406.92 11.88 8.48
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