陕南秦巴山区地质灾害危险性评价研究

周静静; 张晓敏; 赵法锁; 李辉; 刘海南

doi:10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2019.25.04.053

陕南秦巴山区地质灾害危险性评价研究

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2019.25.04.053

周静静^1,,
张晓敏^1, ,,
赵法锁¹,
李辉^{2, 3},
刘海南^{2, 3}

1.
长安大学地质工程与测绘学院, 陕西西安 710054
2.
国土资源部矿山地质灾害成灾机理与防控重点实验室, 陕西西安 710054
3.
陕西省地质环境监测总站, 陕西西安 710054

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41877247

详细信息

作者简介:
周静静(1992-), 女, 在读博士, 主要从事地质灾害研究。E-mail:578685749@qq.com

通讯作者:
张晓敏(1994-), 女, 在读硕士, 主要从事地质灾害研究。E-mail:854168051@qq.com

中图分类号: P694;X43
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-09-04
- 修回日期: 2019-01-04
- 刊出日期: 2019-08-01

RESEARCH ON RISK ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS IN QINLING-DABA MOUNTAIN AREA, SOUTH SHAANXI PROVINCE

ZHOU Jingjing^1
,,
ZHANG Xiaomin^{1
, ,},
ZHAO Fasuo¹,
LI Hui^{2, 3},
LIU Hainan^{2, 3}

1.
College of Geology Engineering and Surveying Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Mine Geological Hazards Mechanism and Control, Ministry of Land and Resources, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China
3.
Shaanxi Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China

摘要

摘要: 陕西省是中国地质灾害最严重的省份之一，而陕南秦巴山区地质灾害灾情尤为严峻，因此进行地质灾害危险性评价对指导防灾减灾工作意义重大。文章以陕南秦巴山区为研究区，基于GIS技术与2001-2016年研究区地质灾害灾情数据，分析研究了区内地质灾害与各指标因子之间的敏感性关系，并确定了高程、岩土体类型、断裂构造、降雨等7个影响地质灾害发生较大的因子作为区域地质灾害危险性评价指标。其次，以各指标条件下地质灾害数量和累计发生频次曲线斜率的突变为依据，对评价指标因子进行状态分级。最后，运用信息量法建立栅格数据模型展开区域地质灾害危险性评价。研究结果表明：高危险性、较高危险性、中危险性的地区占研究区总面积的百分比分别为10.52%、28.31%、30.19%，区内地质灾害点的空间分布与地质灾害危险性评价结果基本一致，信息量模型的预测精度为90.16%。文章将经验知识与数据驱动的分析方法相结合，应用于较大范围的地质灾害危险性区划，研究结果可为区域地质灾害防治工作提供参考依据。
- 地质灾害 /
- GIS /
- 指标因子 /
- 信息量 /
- 危险性评价 /
- 陕南秦巴山区
Abstract: Shaanxi Province is one of the provinces with the most serious geological disasters in China, especially the Qinling-Daba mountain area in south Shaanxi Province. Therefore, it is of great significance to conduct geological hazard assessment to guide disaster prevention and reduction. Taking Qinling-Daba mountain area as the study area, firstly based on GIS technology and the geological hazard data of the study area from 2001 to 2016, the sensitivity relationship between geological hazards and various index factors in the area is studied, and seven factors affecting the occurrence of geological hazards, such as elevation, type of rock and soil mass, fault structure and rainfall, are determined as the risk assessment indexes of regional geological hazards. Secondly, according to the number of geological disasters and the slope abrupt change of cumulative frequency curves under each index, the assessment index factors are graded into different states. Finally, the grid data model is established to carry out regional geological hazards assessment by using information value model. The results show that the percentages of high-risk, relatively high-risk, and medium-risk areas in the study area are 10.52%, 28.31% and 30.19%, respectively. The spatial distribution of geological hazards in the region is basically consistent with the hazard assessment results, and the prediction accuracy is 90.16%. This research combines empirical knowledge with data-driven analysis methods and applies to a wide range of geological hazard zoning. The conclusions provide reference for prevention and control of regional geological hazards.
- geological hazards /
- geographic information system(GIS) /
- index factors /
- information /
- risk assessment /
- Qinling-Daba mountain area in south Shaanxi Province
注释:

责任编辑：吴芳

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图 1 陕南秦巴山区区域自然地理概况

Figure 1. Natural geography of Qinling-Daba mountain area

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图 2 危险性评价指标因素

Figure 2. Index factors of risk assessment

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图 3 地质灾害分布与高程的关系

Figure 3. The relationship between geological hazard distribution and elevation

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图 4 地质灾害分布与坡度的关系

Figure 4. The relationship between geological hazard distribution and slope

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图 5 地质灾害分布与岩土体类型的关系

岩土类型:1——坚硬岩石；2——坚硬、半坚硬岩石；3——半坚硬、半软弱岩石；4——软弱岩石；5——粘性土；6——砂土、砾石层

Figure 5. The relationship between geological hazard distribution and the type of rock and soil

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图 6 地质灾害分布与断裂缓冲区的关系

Figure 6. The relationship between geological hazard distribution and fault buffer

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图 7 地质灾害分布与河流缓冲区的关系

Figure 7. The relationship between geological hazard distribution and river buffer

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图 8 地质灾害分布与年平均降雨量的关系

Figure 8. The relationship between geological hazard distribution and average annual rainfall

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图 9 地质灾害分布与道路缓冲区的关系

Figure 9. The relationship between geological hazard distribution and road buffer

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图 10 陕南秦巴山区各指标因子状态分级图

Figure 10. Grading chart of each index factor in Qinling-Daba mountain area

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图 11 陕南秦巴山区地质灾害危险性分区图

Figure 11. Risk zoning map of Qinling-Daba mountain area

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表 2 各指标因子间的相关关系

Table 2. The correlation between index factors

相关关系	指标因子	高程	坡度	岩性	断裂	水系	地震	降雨	人类活动
R	高程	1
	坡度	0.04	1
	岩性	0.07	-0.01	1
	断裂构造	0.06	0.027	0.12	1
	水系	-0.02	0.003	-0.01	0.045	1
	地震	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.04	-0.02	1
	降雨	-0.01	0.00	0.11	0.04	0.00	0.09	1
	人类活动	0.07	0.02	0.02	0.12	0.24	-0.09	-0.04	1
Sig.	高程
	坡度	0.00
	岩性	0.00	0.15
	断裂构造	0.00	0.00	0.00
	水系	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00
	地震	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	降雨	0.02	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00
	人类活动	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

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表 3 信息量值计算结果

Table 3. Results of information values

评价指标	分级	信息量	评价指标	分级	信息量
高程/m	[157, 417)	0.8238	与水系距离/m	[0, 400)	0.6553
	[417, 1327)	0.0876		[400, 800)	0.0856
	[1327, 1977)	-0.3877		[800, 1200)	0.1079
	[1977, 3038)	-0.5265		[1200, 1600)	-0.0903
岩土体类型	坚硬岩石	-0.7434		[1600, 2000)	0.0831
	坚硬、半坚硬岩石	-0.0867		> 2000	-0.1283
	半坚硬半软弱岩石	-0.2284	年平均降雨量/mm	[600, 672)	-0.4791
	软弱岩石	0.3842		[672, 924)	0.0251
	粘性土	0.2624		[924, 1032)	0.1482
	砂土、砾石层	-0.1184		[1032, 1140)	-0.1450
与断裂带距离/m	[0, 1000)	0.1974		[1140, 1269)	-0.7780
	[1000, 2000)	-0.0021	与交通线路距离/m	[0, 500)	0.6455
	[2000, 3000)	0.0010		[500, 1000)	0.1927
	[3000, 4000)	-0.1621		[1000, 1500)	0.1447
	[4000, 5000)	-0.2390		[1500, 2000)	0.1634
	≥5000	-0.6038		[2000, 3000)	0.0288
抗震设防烈度	6	0.0779		≥3000	-0.2058
抗震设防烈度	7	-0.1274

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表 4 危险性评价结果统计

Table 4. Statistical results of risk assessment

危险性等级	发生灾害的栅格数b	栅格总数 c	灾害比例 (b/c)/%	占发生灾害栅格总数比例/%	占栅格总数比例/%	灾点密度/ 100 km²
高	1029830	1037557	99.26	29.45	10.52	21.34
较高	1237287	2792448	44.31	35.38	28.30	9.48
中	886292	2978551	29.76	25.34	30.19	6.57
较低	258923	2023478	12.80	7.40	20.51	2.99
低	85083	1033906	8.23	2.43	10.48	1.97

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