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汶川震区成兰铁路关键段多尺度滑坡危险性评估

王涛 胡秋韵 张永双 吴树仁 辛鹏

王涛, 胡秋韵, 张永双, 等, 2014. 汶川震区成兰铁路关键段多尺度滑坡危险性评估. 地质力学学报, 20 (4): 379-391.
引用本文: 王涛, 胡秋韵, 张永双, 等, 2014. 汶川震区成兰铁路关键段多尺度滑坡危险性评估. 地质力学学报, 20 (4): 379-391.
WANG Tao, HU Qiu-yun, ZHANG Yong-shuang, et al., 2014. MULTI-SCALE LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR KEY SECTION OF CHENGDU-LANZHOU RAILWAY, WENCHUAN SEISMIC REGION. Journal of Geomechanics, 20 (4): 379-391.
Citation: WANG Tao, HU Qiu-yun, ZHANG Yong-shuang, et al., 2014. MULTI-SCALE LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR KEY SECTION OF CHENGDU-LANZHOU RAILWAY, WENCHUAN SEISMIC REGION. Journal of Geomechanics, 20 (4): 379-391.

汶川震区成兰铁路关键段多尺度滑坡危险性评估

基金项目: 

国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题 2011BAK12B09

国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题 2012BAK10B02

国家自然科学基金项目 41102165

中国地质调查局地质调查项目 12120114035501

详细信息
    作者简介:

    王涛(1982-), 男, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事地震地质灾害调查研究。E-mail:wangtao_ig@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

MULTI-SCALE LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR KEY SECTION OF CHENGDU-LANZHOU RAILWAY, WENCHUAN SEISMIC REGION

  • 摘要: 以穿越汶川震区的成兰铁路龙门山关键段为例, 探索提出了强震扰动背景下重大工程场区多尺度滑坡危险性评估方法。利用信息量模型反演评估了汶川地震诱发的同震滑坡空间分布特征, 以此为前提开展了区域和局地两种空间尺度的滑坡危险性预测评估。在区域廊带尺度上, 分别利用可能最大降雨量预测方法和信息量模型, 进行了日超越概率10%的最大降雨量时空分布预测及其诱发滑坡的危险性评估; 同时, 结合地震危险性区划成果, 开展了50年超越概率10%的基本地震动诱发滑坡的危险性评估。在局地场站尺度上, 利用基于崩塌运动过程模拟的Rockfall Analyst软件, 开展了柿子园大桥周边崩塌运动学特征(Runout)模拟和危险性评估。滑坡和崩塌危险性评估的结果分别为铁路规划选线和场站防护设计提供了不同尺度的地质安全依据。

     

  • 图  1  成兰铁路龙门山关键段区域地质地理背景简图

    Figure  1.  Brief regional geological and geographic context map around Longmenshan section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

    图  2  成兰铁路关键段地震滑坡及其影响因素分布图

    Figure  2.  Seismic landslide and influential factor maps of key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

    图  3  成兰铁路关键段汶川地震同震滑坡危险性反演评估及检验图

    Figure  3.  Coseismic landslide hazard inversion assessment induced by Wenchuan earthquake and its validation, key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

    图  4  成兰铁路关键段日超越概率10%的潜在降雨及其诱发滑坡危险性评估图

    Figure  4.  Map showing potential precipitation of 10% daily exceedance probability and the inducing landslide hazard assessment, key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

    图  5  成兰铁路关键段50 a超越概率10%的潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性评估图

    Figure  5.  Map showing potential earthquake of 10% exceedance probability in 50 years and the inducing landslide hazard assessment, key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

    图  6  成兰线柿子园大桥邻近地段崩塌运动学模拟及危险性评估图

    A—点状崩塌轨迹; B—线状崩塌轨迹; C—崩塌轨迹运动学剖面; D—崩滑体能量分布图; E—崩滑危险性评估图

    Figure  6.  Rock fall runout simulation and hazard assessment map around Shiziyuan bridge site of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

    表  1  区域滑坡关键影响和诱发因素及数据来源

    Table  1.   Regional crucial landslide influential and inducing factors and data sources

    编号分类关键要素致灾指示意义及数据来源
    1构造断裂带密度地质体“结构面”发育程度,控制坡体稳定性(1:200000地质图)
    2地形坡度坡面“坡角”几何形态,控制坡体稳定性及滑移距离(1:50000 DEM)
    3地形地貌地形起伏度坡体“坡高”几何形态,控制坡体稳定性及滑移距离(1:50000 DEM)
    4坡向坡面降雨或地下水特征和岩体风化差异,影响坡体稳定性(1:50000 DEM)
    5坡形坡面“凹凸”形态差异,控制地震动地形效应(1:50000 DEM)
    6岩性工程地质岩组斜坡岩土体力学“强度”,控制坡体稳定性(1:200000地质图)
    7河流与河流的距离坡脚侵蚀及坡体“水文地质”特征,控制坡体稳定性(1:50000 DLG)
    8地震动Arias强度Ia地震动的“动力”荷载条件,控制坡体稳定性(经验公式[20])
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  Rockfall Analyst模拟所需空间数据一览表

    Table  2.   Spatial data list required for Rockfall Analyst simulation

    数据名称 数据格式 数据模型 数据描述
    地形/DEM Coverage/grid 矢量/栅格 表征地形地貌特征,主要用数字高程模型表达
    点状崩塌源 Shp 矢量 以离散方式表达已有或潜在崩塌源
    线状崩塌源 Shp 矢量 以线性方式表达已有或潜在崩塌源
    地表介质 Shp 矢量 提供崩塌体在运动过程中地表介质的反馈影响
    遥感影像 IMG/TIF 栅格 地物类型及地质灾害等特征的综合反映
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2014-08-13
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