汶川震区成兰铁路关键段多尺度滑坡危险性评估

王涛; 胡秋韵; 张永双; 吴树仁; 辛鹏

汶川震区成兰铁路关键段多尺度滑坡危险性评估

王涛^{1, 2,},
胡秋韵³,
张永双^{1, 2},
吴树仁^{1, 2},
辛鹏^{1, 2}

1.
中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京 100081
2.
国土资源部新构造运动与地质灾害重点实验室, 北京 100081
3.
中国地质调查局, 北京 100037

基金项目:

国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题 2011BAK12B09

国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题 2012BAK10B02

国家自然科学基金项目 41102165

中国地质调查局地质调查项目 12120114035501

详细信息

作者简介:
王涛(1982-), 男, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事地震地质灾害调查研究。E-mail:wangtao_ig@163.com

中图分类号: P642.22
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-08-13
- 刊出日期: 2014-12-01

MULTI-SCALE LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR KEY SECTION OF CHENGDU-LANZHOU RAILWAY, WENCHUAN SEISMIC REGION

WANG Tao^{1, 2
,},
HU Qiu-yun³,
ZHANG Yong-shuang^{1, 2},
WU Shu-ren^{1, 2},
XIN Peng^{1, 2}

1.
Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Neotectonics Movement & Geohazards, Ministry of Land and Mineral Resources, Beijing 100081, China
3.
China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China

摘要

摘要: 以穿越汶川震区的成兰铁路龙门山关键段为例, 探索提出了强震扰动背景下重大工程场区多尺度滑坡危险性评估方法。利用信息量模型反演评估了汶川地震诱发的同震滑坡空间分布特征, 以此为前提开展了区域和局地两种空间尺度的滑坡危险性预测评估。在区域廊带尺度上, 分别利用可能最大降雨量预测方法和信息量模型, 进行了日超越概率10%的最大降雨量时空分布预测及其诱发滑坡的危险性评估; 同时, 结合地震危险性区划成果, 开展了50年超越概率10%的基本地震动诱发滑坡的危险性评估。在局地场站尺度上, 利用基于崩塌运动过程模拟的Rockfall Analyst软件, 开展了柿子园大桥周边崩塌运动学特征(Runout)模拟和危险性评估。滑坡和崩塌危险性评估的结果分别为铁路规划选线和场站防护设计提供了不同尺度的地质安全依据。
- 汶川 /
- 地震扰动区 /
- 滑坡 /
- 多尺度 /
- 危险性 /
- 成兰铁路
Abstract: Taking Longmenshan key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway in Wenchuan seismic region as an example, we explore a sort of multi-scale landslide hazard assessing method for major project site in strong earthquake afflicted area. The spatial distribution characteristics of coseismic landslides induced by Wenchuan M_s 8.0 earthquake are inverted assessed with information value model. On this basis, landslide hazard assessments in regional and local scale are carried out. In regional railway corridor scale, the temporal and spatial distribution of daily maximum precipitation of 10% exceedance probability is predicted by Probable Maximum Precipitation method. Due to such probable precipitation, the landslide hazard is assessed with information value model. Also, combining seismic hazard zoning result, the landslide hazard is assessed due to basic earthquake ground motion of 10% exceedance probability in 50 years. In local railway station scale, with Rockfall Analyst software based on rolling stone kinematics simulation, runout characteristics and hazard of rockfall around Shiziyuan bridge site are simulated and assessed. All of the landslide and rockfall hazard assessment results above provide geological safety references in different scales for railway plan and line selection, site landslide defense design respectively.
- Wenchuan /
- seismic region /
- landslide /
- multi-scale /
- hazard /
- Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

HTML全文

图 1 成兰铁路龙门山关键段区域地质地理背景简图

Figure 1. Brief regional geological and geographic context map around Longmenshan section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 成兰铁路关键段地震滑坡及其影响因素分布图

Figure 2. Seismic landslide and influential factor maps of key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 成兰铁路关键段汶川地震同震滑坡危险性反演评估及检验图

Figure 3. Coseismic landslide hazard inversion assessment induced by Wenchuan earthquake and its validation, key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 成兰铁路关键段日超越概率10%的潜在降雨及其诱发滑坡危险性评估图

Figure 4. Map showing potential precipitation of 10% daily exceedance probability and the inducing landslide hazard assessment, key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 成兰铁路关键段50 a超越概率10%的潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性评估图

Figure 5. Map showing potential earthquake of 10% exceedance probability in 50 years and the inducing landslide hazard assessment, key section of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 成兰线柿子园大桥邻近地段崩塌运动学模拟及危险性评估图

A—点状崩塌轨迹; B—线状崩塌轨迹; C—崩塌轨迹运动学剖面; D—崩滑体能量分布图; E—崩滑危险性评估图

Figure 6. Rock fall runout simulation and hazard assessment map around Shiziyuan bridge site of Chengdu-Lanzhou railway

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 区域滑坡关键影响和诱发因素及数据来源

Table 1. Regional crucial landslide influential and inducing factors and data sources

编号	分类	关键要素	致灾指示意义及数据来源
1	构造	断裂带密度	地质体“结构面”发育程度，控制坡体稳定性(1:200000地质图)
2		地形坡度	坡面“坡角”几何形态，控制坡体稳定性及滑移距离(1:50000 DEM)
3	地形地貌	地形起伏度	坡体“坡高”几何形态，控制坡体稳定性及滑移距离(1:50000 DEM)
4	地形地貌	坡向	坡面降雨或地下水特征和岩体风化差异，影响坡体稳定性(1:50000 DEM)
5		坡形	坡面“凹凸”形态差异，控制地震动地形效应(1:50000 DEM)
6	岩性	工程地质岩组	斜坡岩土体力学“强度”，控制坡体稳定性(1:200000地质图)
7	河流	与河流的距离	坡脚侵蚀及坡体“水文地质”特征，控制坡体稳定性(1:50000 DLG)
8	地震动	Arias强度Ia	地震动的“动力”荷载条件，控制坡体稳定性(经验公式^[20])

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 Rockfall Analyst模拟所需空间数据一览表

Table 2. Spatial data list required for Rockfall Analyst simulation

数据名称	数据格式	数据模型	数据描述
地形/DEM	Coverage/grid	矢量/栅格	表征地形地貌特征，主要用数字高程模型表达
点状崩塌源	Shp	矢量	以离散方式表达已有或潜在崩塌源
线状崩塌源	Shp	矢量	以线性方式表达已有或潜在崩塌源
地表介质	Shp	矢量	提供崩塌体在运动过程中地表介质的反馈影响
遥感影像	IMG/TIF	栅格	地物类型及地质灾害等特征的综合反映

下载: 导出CSV

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