对日本9级地震的中期预测及其依据

徐道一; 邓志辉; 楚全芝; 徐好民; 陶京玲

对日本9级地震的中期预测及其依据

中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029

基金项目:

中央公益性院所基本科研专项 IGCEA1001

中国地震局老专家科学基金项目 201039

详细信息

作者简介:
徐道一(1934-), 男, 中国地震局地质研究所研究员, 专业:地质学、地震预测等。E-mail:xdy505@126.com

中图分类号: P315.75
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2011-09-28
- 刊出日期: 2012-03-28

THE MODERATE-TERM PREDICTION FOR M_w 9.0 EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN AND ITS SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND

Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China

摘要

摘要: 对2011年3月11日发生在日本的9级大地震所做出的中期预测进行小结，并对所提出预测意见及其依据做了简要论述。预测地区在日本南部、台湾以及菲律宾一带；预测震级为8~8.3级；预测时间是今后几年；预测依据是青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系。预测地震三要素与日本9级大地震三要素的对比结果表明，这一中期预测是基本正确的。
- 日本9级大地震 /
- 中期预测 /
- 歹字型构造体系
Abstract: In this paper, the author summarized the moderate-term prediction about the super-great earthquake occurred in the sea off the east coast of Honshu, Japan on March 11, 2011, and discussed the predicting criteria. The predicted areas were defined to south Japan and other two areas. The predicted earthquake magnitude was 8.0 to 8.3. The moderate-term prediction was based on the tectonic system controlled by Qinhai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma-Indonesian eta-type tectonic series. The comparison of prediction result to the occurrence of M_w 9.0 earthquake in Japan indicates that the prediction is basically correct.
- M_w 9.0 great earthquake occurred in Japan /
- moderate-term prediction /
- eta-type tectonic system

HTML全文

图 1 亚洲8个8级地震的空间分布

Figure 1. Spatial distributions of 8 great earthquakes in Asia

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 印尼巨震与巴基斯坦巨震和汶川巨震的基本参数以及时间间隔

Table 1. Basic parameters of earthquakes in Indonesia, Pakistan and Wenchuan, and time intervals

表 2 2011年3—4月发生于日本及中国西南地区的几个地震的基本参数

Table 2. Basic parameters of earthquakes occurred in Japan and southwest China from March to April, 2011

表 3 1945—1963年期间亚洲三次巨震的基本参数

Table 3. Basic parameters of three earthquakes in Asia during 1945 to 1963

参考文献(13)

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