地应力与地震研究进展及展望

杨树新; 姚瑞; 李玉江; 黄禄渊; 胡幸平

doi:10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2025104

地应力与地震研究进展及展望

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2025104

杨树新^1,,
姚瑞^1, ,,
李玉江^1,,
黄禄渊^2,,
胡幸平^1,

1.
应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院，北京 100085
2.
中国地震局地球物理研究所，北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（42174120，41804052）；国家科技重大专项（2024ZD1000703）；国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1503403）

详细信息

作者简介:
杨树新（1963—），男，博士，研究员，主要从事岩石圈应力状态、地应力测量、地震动力过程数值实验等方面的研究工作。Email：yangshuxin1964@263.net

通讯作者:
姚瑞（1985—），女，硕士，助理研究员，主要从事基于实测地应力数据和数值模拟的断层稳定性研究。Email：yaorui_4123@163.com

中图分类号: P315.72+7；P553
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- 文章访问数: 172
- HTML全文浏览量: 30
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-08-22
- 修回日期: 2025-11-18
- 录用日期: 2025-11-19
- 预出版日期: 2025-11-21
- 刊出日期: 2025-12-28

Progress and perspectives in research on crustal stress and earthquakes

YANG Shuxin^1
,,
YAO Rui^{1
, ,},
LI Yujiang^1
,,
HUANG Luyuan^2
,,
HU Xingping^1
,

1.
National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, China
2.
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: This research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42174120 and 41804052), the National Science and Technology Major Project (Grant No. 2024ZD1000703), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1503403).

摘要

摘要: 地应力是理解岩石圈动力学过程、揭示地震孕育机制及评估区域地震危险性的核心物理参数，同时可为地下能源资源开发与重大岩土工程的优化设计、安全施工和运营提供基础数据。文章系统梳理该领域的研究脉络，明确当前研究进展与挑战，可为未来研究提供方向。通过系统回顾与综合分析法，从地应力信息获取、应力场分析与建模、地震应力过程3个维度出发，总结了技术方法体系与发展范式演进：在信息获取方面，观测技术实现了从浅部向深部、单点向网络化的跨越，传统方法持续优化，非弹性应变恢复（ASR）、差应变曲线分析（DSCA）等深井原位测量技术将观测深度推进至5 km以深，多学科数据融合成为显著特征；在应力场分析和建模方面，研究方法从解析法、数值模拟演进至“机理+数据+知识”的智能分析新范式，数值模型从二维弹性发展为三维黏弹塑性，实现了区域四维应力场的动态刻画；在地震应力过程方面，实测应力、库仑应力模型与物理−数值实验共同揭示了地震孕育的“平静−积累−释放−调整”循环特征、应力触发与影区效应以及断层失稳成核的物理机制。当前研究仍面临深部数据匮乏、多源数据融合困难、初始应力场不确定性高难挑战。未来应重点发展多手段智能化深部应力观测技术、构建物理约束的机器学习反演与四维动态应力场模型、深化“热−化−力”耦合流变研究，并推动建立“应力机理−海量数据−专家知识”协同的地震预测新范式，为地震风险评估与防灾减灾提供更坚实的科学支撑。通过梳理地应力与地震研究进展及对其展望，为地震应力过程的观测与分析、地震动力学预测方法研究提供了参考与借鉴。
- 地应力 /
- 地震孕育 /
- 数值模拟 /
- 物理机制 /
- 智能预测
Abstract: Objective The crustal stress state is a key physical parameter for understanding lithospheric dynamics, elucidating earthquake preparation mechanisms, and assessing regional seismic hazards. It also provides essential data for the optimal design, safe construction, and operation of major underground energy and geotechnical engineering projects. Systematically reviewing the research context in this field and clarifying the current progress and challenges can provide guidance for future research. Methods Through a systematic review and synthesis, we summarize the technical methodologies and the evolution of development paradigms in three interconnected domains: acquisition of crustal stress data, analysis and modeling of stress fields, and stress processes associated with earthquakes. Results (1) Progress in stress information acquisition: Observation techniques have advanced from shallow to deep levels and from single-site measurements to network-based monitoring. Traditional methods have been continuously refined, while deep borehole in-situ techniques, such as elastic strain recovery (ASR) and differential strain curve analysis (DSCA), have extended observation depths beyond 5 km. The integration of multidisciplinary data has become a prominent trend. (2) Advances in stress field analysis and modeling: Methodologies have evolved from analytical and numerical approaches to an intelligent framework that integrates mechanisms, data, and knowledge. Numerical models have developed from two-dimensional elastic formulations to three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic representations, enabling the dynamic characterization of regional four-dimensional stress fields. (3) Developments in earthquake-related stress processes: In-situ stress measurements, Coulomb stress modeling, and combined physical–numerical experiments jointly reveal the cyclic pattern of “quiescence–accumulation–release–adjustment” during earthquake initiation, as well as stress triggering and shadow effects, and the physical mechanisms underlying fault instability nucleation. Conclusion Current research still faces challenges such as the scarcity of deep stress data, the complexity of integrating multi-source data, and the high uncertainty in determining the initial stress field. Future studies should focus on (1) developing intelligent, multi-method technologies for deep stress observation; (2) constructing machine learning–based inversion and four-dimensional dynamic stress field models constrained by physical principles; (3) advancing research on thermo–chemical–mechanical coupling rheology; and (4) promoting a new paradigm for seismic prediction that integrates stress mechanisms, big data, and expert knowledge. Thereby, future studies will provide a more robust scientific foundation for seismic risk assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation. [ Significance ] This review of advancements and prospects in crustal stress and earthquake research provides references and insights for the observation and analysis of seismic stress processes and for the research on seismic dynamic prediction methods.
- crustal stress /
- earthquake nucleation /
- numerical simulation /
- physical mechanisms /
- intelligent forecasting

HTML全文

图 1 2025版世界应力图（据Heidbach et al.，2025修改）

Figure 1. World stress map 2025 ( modified from Heidbach et al., 2025)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 中国及邻区现代构造应力场图(谢富仁和崔效锋，2015)

Figure 2. Map of the modern tectonic stress field of China and adjacent areas (Xie and Cui, 2015)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

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