基于不同位移预测模型的地震滑坡危险性评估研究-以天水地区为例

刘甲美; 王涛; 石菊松; 辛鹏; 吴树仁

doi:10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2018.24.01.010

基于不同位移预测模型的地震滑坡危险性评估研究-以天水地区为例

doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2018.24.01.010

刘甲美^{1, 2,},
王涛^{1, 2, ,},
石菊松³,
辛鹏^{1, 2},
吴树仁^{1, 2}

1.
中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京 100081
2.
国土资源部新构造运动与地质灾害重点实验室, 北京 100081
3.
中国地质调查局, 北京 100037

基金项目:

中国地质调查局地质调查项目 DD20160271

国家自然科学基金 41372374

国家自然科学基金 41572313

详细信息

作者简介:
刘甲美(1987-), 男, 博士后, 主要从事地震地质灾害调查与定量评估研究。E-mail:ljm19870918@126.com

通讯作者:
王涛(1982-), 男, 副研究员, 主要从事工程地质与地质灾害评价等研究工作。E-mail:wangtao_ig@163.com

中图分类号: P642.22
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- 文章访问数: 235
- HTML全文浏览量: 93
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-05-28
- 修回日期: 2017-08-13
- 刊出日期: 2018-02-28

THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT NEWMARK DISPLACEMENT MODELS ON SEISMIC LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY OF TIANSHUI AREA, CHINA

LIU Jiamei^{1, 2
,},
WANG Tao^{1, 2
, ,},
SHI Jusong³,
XIN Peng^{1, 2},
WU Shuren^{1, 2}

1.
Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Neotectonic Movement and Geohazard, Ministry of Land and Resourses, Beijing 100081, China
3.
China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China

摘要

摘要: 近年来，Newmark累积位移分析方法经过不断的改进和应用成为国际主流的地震滑坡危险性评估方法之一，众多学者基于位移预测模型开展区域地震滑坡危险性评估，然而鲜有针对不同位移模型对评估结果影响的定量研究。以天水地区为例，基于不同的位移预测模型开展地震滑坡危险性评估，对比位移模型对地震滑坡危险性评估的影响，探讨建立适用于我国的Newmark位移预测模型。结果表明：基于不同位移预测模型评估所得的地震滑坡危险性结果整体趋势一致，均能区分区域地震滑坡危险性等级的相对差异，但在同样的危险性分级标准下，所得中、高危险区的分布范围有较大差异。这与位移模型的函数形式及其区域相关性有关，在引入Newmark累积位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性评估的同时，应尽快建立考虑地震动衰减特征和工程地质背景的Newmark位移预测模型，为中国潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评估、震后滑坡快速评估等提供技术支撑。
- 地震滑坡 /
- 危险性评估 /
- Newmark位移预测模型 /
- 天水地区
Abstract: Recent years, the Newmark sliding-block model is one of the most wildly-used methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes; however, the influence of different Newmark displacement models on seismic landslide hazard assessments need to be investigated and quantified. Through the comparison between the displacements estimated by various Newmark displacement models in the Tianshui area, the influence of Newmark displacement models on seismic landslide hazard assessments are discussed. The results show that the overall tendency of the seismic landslide risk assessment based on different displacement prediction models is consistent; however, due to the region dependent and various function forms of these models, there is a great difference in the distribution of moderate and high seismic landslide hazard area. It suggests that a Newmark displacement prediction model considering the attenuation characteristics of ground motion and the engineering geological background of China should be established as soon as possible, which will provide support for the potential seismic landslide hazard assessment and the rapid assessment of post-earthquake landslide.
- seismic landslide /
- hazard assessment /
- Newmark displacement prediction model /
- Tianshui area

HTML全文

图 1 研究区构造位置图

F₁—西秦岭北缘断裂(F_{1 a}—天水段, F_1b—武山段，F_1c—宝鸡段); F₂—礼县—罗家堡断裂(F_{2 a}—东段，F_2b—西段); F₃—通渭断裂; F₄—清水断裂

Figure 1. Structural map of the study area

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 天水地区典型滑坡类型

a—磨峪沟浅层碎屑流； b—后峪沟变质砂岩风化层； c—天水郡村南泥岩滑坡； d—南沟河支沟黄土滑坡

Figure 2. Typical landslides in Tianshui area

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图 3 研究区斜坡地层岩性简图

Figure 3. Distribution diagram of the slope formation lithology in the study area

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图 4 研究区斜坡临界加速度分布

Figure 4. Map showing critical acceleration in the study area

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图 5 设定地震Arias烈度空间分布

Figure 5. Map showing the distribution of Arias intensity for the scenario earthquake

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图 6 基于不同位移预测公式的地震滑坡Newmark位移分布

a—公式 3； b—公式 4； c—公式 5； d—公式 6

Figure 6. Map showing the comparison of the Newmark displacement from multi-displacement models

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 不同位移公式参数特征

Table 1. Parameter characteristics of different displacement formulas

位移公式	震级范围 (记录数)	临界加速度范围(g)	相关系数 (标准差)
公式(3)	5.8~7.5(11)	0.02~0.40	0.87(0.409)
公式(4)	5.3~7.6(875)	0.05~0.40	0.71(0.656)
公式(5)	6.7~7.4(290)	0.01~0.40	0.89(0.295)
公式(6)	6.7(20)	0.01~0.20	0.90(0.172)

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 不同位移预测公式多得位移区间分布

Table 2. Displacement interval distribution based on different displacement prediction formulas

位移公式	Newmark位移(占研究区总面积百分比)
位移公式	0 cm~0.5 cm	0.5 cm~5.0 cm	5.0 cm~50 cm	>50 cm
公式(3)	90.7%	7.4%	1.9%	0.1%
公式(4)	97.1%	2.0%	0.5%	0.4%
公式(5)	95.1%	3.4%	1.4%	0.1%
公式(6)	98.0%	1.3%	0.7%	0

下载: 导出CSV

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